I have had some truly exceptional discussions with clients over these past few weeks. This notion that monetary policy tightenings do not pack the same punch as they used to because of the legacy effects from QE losses has caught a lot of attention. And as I...
During this past week, while seeing clients in Europe, I had a revelation. It was one of those “lightbulb above the head” moments where I thought to myself, “How could I have not seen this before??” It kept me up quite late for a couple of nights as I worked through...
Last week, Jay took what I would call a mini victory lap. It was not some sort of politically pressured Burnsian policy pivot forced on him by the administration or Congress. Rather, it was a subtle, but aggressive, premeditated attack on all those demand-side...
A discussion of the outlook for the fed, interest rates and opportunities in the US credit markets. Watch replay here. You are unauthorized to view this...
Before discussing today’s topic, I want to clarify a couple things on my “got junk?” trade recommendation for 2023. First of all, I want to reiterate that I do not see a compelling case for spoos to move out of the range we have been in since last June. That was my...
I’m not sure how it happened, but in what feels like the blink of an eye, I am beginning my 14th year of writing on the global macroeconomic outlook here at Jefferies. Over these years, clients from all walks of financial market life have universally come around...
In my last note back on Nov 29th, prior to Jay's Brookings speech and the December FOMC meeting, I penned the following: Looking ahead, I want to recommend ... just riding an outright long spoo position for the time being. I know Jay is likely to be hawkish…, but...
In my last note back on Nov 29th, prior to Jay's Brookings speech and the December FOMC meeting, I penned the following: Looking ahead, I want to recommend ... just riding an outright long spoo position for the time being. I know Jay is likely to be hawkish…, but somehow I feel like that is […]
