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2021 Commentaries

A long way from the Fed put strike

With the Fed nomination saga and trading scandal now behind us, the risks surrounding monetary policy (mis)communications have dissipated sharply. And to be sure, with his political shackles removed, Jay was in top form at last week’s presser. He presented a hawkish but well-balanced message, which both the risk-asset and UST markets embraced positively. That, […]

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Asset prices speak the truth, economists not so much

Spoos just off record highs, 10yr notes sub-1.50%, and 5y5y breakevens at 2.10% all imply that the current inflationista narrative is a complete sham. This crackpot notion that the Fed is way behind the curve, that they have made a colossal mistake by remaining too accommodative for too long, and that they have lost all of […]

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Meet the new boss - Jael Poward

First off, let me just say that I did not get this FOMC nomination process right. I thought politics would drive team Biden to keep the acrimony in DC at its peak. As a result, I saw Jay getting cast aside as chair for a more politically compatible pick like Lael or Raphael. In the […]

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C’mon infationistas - put your money where mouth is (Redux)!!!

Shortly after the April CPI release this year, on May 21, I penned a commentary entitled C’mon inflationistas – put your money where your mouth is!!!  That particular inflation reading was our first experience with 1970s-type monthly numbers in nearly 40 years. The headline came in at a whopping 0.8%, and the core at an even […]

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Spoos & Bodyguards

The odds of Jay’s being renominated rose sharply this past week. The main catalyst came Wednesday as the election results across the US created a resounding rejection of the progressive Democratic agenda. It was after all these progressive folks, led by Liz W, who were mounting the aggressive attack on Jay after the trading scandal. And their political weakness […]

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The Conundrum vs. the Inflationistas

I want to take folks back in time today about 20 years, when the US was just coming out of the dotcom recession. By historical standards this was a mild downturn, with only about 1.9m in cumulative job losses between March 2001 and September 2002. And officially, according to the NBER, the recession lasted only eight […]

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