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2010 Commentaries

Deflationstan in flames

The high print for the year in the current coupon 30 year mortgage rate was 4.67 on April 5th. We touched 4.45 yesterday and they are going up at 4.47 as I write. Only two months ago, back on October 8th, we touched a low of 3.20. If one were to have said in October […]

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The Great Expectation

I have spent the better part of the last couple weeks traveling throughout the US and Europe seeing clients from nearly all of JEFs’ business lines – govvies, abs, emg and equities. By far, the number one topic of discussion has been QE2. And one thing is crystal clear after all these meetings – QE2 […]

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Goodbye to the New Normal

The reality of QE2 has finally set in. Over the past month 10 year Treasury yields are about 50bps higher and the S&P is up about 3%. The US equity market is now up over 10% for the year while annual returns for 10yr US government securities, which had peaked at nearly 14%, are now […]

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"The Bear Market" – revisited

It has been back to back meetings in London this week so apologies for the radio silence during these tumultuous times. There are so many things to discuss I’m not sure where to begin: US growth upgrades from the econ mob, huge positive US fiscal stimulus surprises, pre-committed reflation policies from Ben, the debut of […]

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A Wolf in an Aran Cardigan

The tangled web of geopolitics in markets gets more complex by the day. Yesterday, unnamed US officials piped up about adding additional funding to the EFSF. Why in the world would the US want to bail out peripheral Europe? Aren’t the Americans supposed to be done with bailouts and fiscal profligacy? The Fed is facing […]

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Where are all the 2% 10 year folks now???

Europe is going through an exercise in self-destruction. The Fed is buying 600b in Treasuries. And North Korea is vowing a “physical response” to US-South Korean military drills off its coast. If these events could not get the Treasury market to rally then what will??? Answer – NOTHING! There is just not a lot of […]

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