Recent Commentaries

Dump It

I will start today where I ended Monday’s note. Here is a quick excerpt from the final paragraph in order to refresh your memory: The real risk ahead for the market is just more Fed uncertainty. Who is coming next? How will a newly reconfigured FOMC interact with the...

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Puzzle solved: Jay knows his days are numbered

Last Wednesday during the FOMC press conference, Jay seemed a bit off. He hardly mentioned the word transitory. He barely spoke about the millions of jobs missing since Feb 2020. And he never once highlighted the long-term disinflationary forces still facing the US...

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Positioning for battle with some 1970s-inspired Jefferies swag

The current debate on inflation is far from over. Those in the transitory camp, like me, who believe long-term disinflationary trends will reassert themselves as the short-term COVID-induced supply disruptions dissipate, can certainly take comfort from the last two...

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