Recent Commentaries

Calm after the storm

As was the case two weeks ago, I have found myself this past week with very little new to opine about on the macro front. Spoos have been rising; short end UST yields have been steady; and IG spreads have tightened. All is well on the spoos & sigs front. That...

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The yield curve has predicted 10 out of the last 1 pandemics

Since late February I have been writing commentaries at an abnormally high frequency – about 2 to 3 times per week. And to be sure, there has been no shortage of serious macro-related topics to riff on during this pandemic period. However, global financial markets are...

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“For Now” = “Definitely Maybe”

"With a strong job market, inflation closer to our objective, and the risks to the outlook roughly balanced, the FOMC believes that — for now — the best way forward is to keep gradually raising the federal funds rate.” — Jay Powell, July 2018 How did that work in Dec....

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