Recent Commentaries
The Pivot and Financial Instability Redux
Given that the weekly balance sheet report from the Fed just came out this evening showing a whopping ~$300b EXPANSION, I thought it would be useful to bring back a piece I wrote just over four months ago. The framework outlined in this piece best describes how I...
A failure of interest-rate risk management and a failure of regulatory oversight
Obviously, all market attention has shifted focus to the fallout from the SVB receivership announcement on Friday and the Fed/Treasury response this evening. This failure marks the first potential systemic risk to arise from the Fed's tightening. And the SBNY...
Some additional thoughts on stimulative central bank portfolio losses
I have had some truly exceptional discussions with clients over these past few weeks. This notion that monetary policy tightenings do not pack the same punch as they used to because of the legacy effects from QE losses has caught a lot of attention. And as I...