Recent Commentaries

Common misconceptions about the US employment situation

In the year prior to the start of the pandemic, when we were arguably very close to “equilibrium” employment levels, the JOLTS survey averaged ~7.2m openings. Today, with the unemployment rate ~2.5 percentage points higher and employment payrolls ~7m lower, the JOLTS...

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The harder they come, the harder they fall

Today I want to say a few words about the transitory nature of our current inflation shock and the grinding rally in 10yr notes. First of all, I believe extremely large underweight/short positions in the long end of the Treasury market, based on the expectation of a...

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Undershooting both our inflation and employment goals

I have not felt the need to write much recently given that the macro price action has been largely consistent with my Spoos & J’s trading recommendation for 2021. As most readers are well aware, I’m not much of a cheerleader when my trading views are working well;...

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