Recent Commentaries

The REAL story

The real story in today’s market is NOT about surging Fed-induced hyperinflation risks or the dollar’s impending transformation into a Hungarian Pengő. Rather, it’s about the collapse in long-term REAL interest rates to record lows. In order to support this thesis,...

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Some quick thoughts on Powell’s presser

Aside from the obviously dovish tone on both the policy and economic outlooks, I found these points worth highlighting: There was no announced formal framework change, sadly. However, during his response to the last question from Yahoo Finance, he stated that the FOMC...

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Why wait on a framework change?

Back on January 16, 2020, when 2yr notes were yielding north of 1.50% and no one had ever heard of a coronavirus, I penned the following excerpt in a note entitled The pulchritudinous skew in 2s: Looking at either 2-year yields or each of the individual red ED...

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