Recent Commentaries

Jay’s Volcker moment

“For now, we have a very easy policy reaction function to predict. This is a hawkish Fed that is unlikely to be backstopping financial markets anytime soon. Simple as that” (from my note on May 26th entitled “Central Bank Vigilantes”). While many have focused on the...

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Central Bank Vigilantes

As a prelude to today's missive, I want to first provide a little background on my motivation for writing this piece. Back in the early days of my tenure at Jefferies, between 2010–2015, I spent an enormous amount of time arguing that QE would work. And to be sure,...

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