Recent Commentaries

The terminal funds rate redux

Currently the futures market projects that we will reach the terminal funds rate for this business cycle just after the highly likely 25bps increase at next week’s FOMC meeting. The Jan 2019 implied fed funds rate is 2.39%. The Jan 2020 implied rate is 2.58%, and the...

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The pause that refreshes

While recent whippiness in the daily price action of risk assets has most folks on edge, it is useful to take a step back and look at the bigger picture. Specifically, the year-to-date total return for the S&P was +0.32% as of close of business last Friday. Yes, we...

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Thanks Jay, I always enjoy a good Fed miscommunication

Monetary policy mistakes and miscommunications are the bread and butter of macro trading. Without them I probably wouldn’t have a job. Therefore, I want to give a big shout-out to Jay this morning for creating yet another wonderful opportunity for macro traders during...

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