2016 Commentaries

Wishing You A Very Happy New ¥ear$ Celebration

I hope everyone has been able to spend some quality time with their family and friends during this calm holiday market. Today I just wanted to say that it has been my privilege over the past year (and the past seven years) to write for our entire Jefferies family – both clients and colleagues. I […]

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USDJPY is at least 10 big figures too low

Around this time last year the Fed had just hiked rates for the first time in over 9 years. Initially, markets were unfazed by the action as a calm holiday aura settled in over the waning days of 2015. But of course a storm was brewing in the background, and just a few days into […]

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Janet Is No Marilyn Monroe

I ended yesterday’s note on “The Honma Accord” with the following paragraph: “Next up I will be writing on how the Fed is likely to communicate its policy response to the large-scale fiscal expansion plans of the Trump administration. I believe that is the most pressing issue related to Fed policy. And I would even […]

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How can we follow the QE if there is no QE to follow?

I know that I promised to write more on the implications of a US/Japan UST purchase for yen weakness accord. And to be sure this development, if it comes to pass, would create some serious longer-term troubles in EM, commodities and China. But before I go there, I want to tackle one other very important […]

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Will the BoJ monetize the US fiscal expansion?

Spoiler alert, the answer is YES! And more importantly, this is a win-win for both the US and Japan. But before we begin today’s discussion of the interconnectedness between US fiscal policy and Japanese monetary policy, let me say a quick word about EM. I was lucky enough to recommend pivoting away from EM just […]

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Better lucky than smart

Just before the US election, I thankfully (and luckily) recommended cutting our LATAM currency longs. Recall from last Monday’s commentary the following except:   … as Clinton’s odds have increased sharply over the weekend, the risks associated with a large move are now ever more skewed towards a Trump win. And as you all well […]

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