2023 Commentaries

Resurrecting the Art of "Purposeful Obfuscation"

In a 2007 CNBC interview, anchor Maria Bartiromo asked then-retired Fed Chair Alan Greenspan to explain the concept of “Fedspeak.” His answer was as follows: “It’s a… a language of purposeful obfuscation to avoid certain questions coming up, which you know you can’t answer.” And in the spirit of putting this idea to work, Greenspan […]

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Fed > ECB > BoE

I don’t typically like using charts in my market commentaries. I have always been more of a words over pictures kinda guy. But occasionally I break with standard protocol, especially when something worthy catches my eye. And to be sure, the following two charts meet my high hurdle for inclusion: These are headline and core […]

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Hey... well done, Jay!!!

I was thinking of titling today’s missive “It just ain’t that bad – part 3,” but then I thought that a little too banal. The bottom line, though, is that this past week’s inflation data certainly adds to a theme of overall positivity. A 3.6% unemployment rate combined with a 3% CPI inflation rate has […]

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It just ain't that bad – part 2

As the economic data continue to indicate that “it just ain’t that bad,” I want to remind readers of our single most important macro insight so far in 2023. Back on 13-Feb, when December fed fund futures were still projecting a rate below 5%, I penned a note entitled “The massive unintended stimulus from rate […]

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It just ain’t that bad 

The message from the FOMC dot plot last week was straightforward — it just ain’t that bad. The recession that was forecast for the second half of the year has been taken out. The unemployment rate, which had been forecast to rise to 4.5% by year end, is now heading only to 4.1%. And headline […]

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The Victory Skip

Here are three market facts: The dollar is strong. Commodities are weak. Treasury term premiums are low. Now, to be sure, all these facts are indicative of strength in overall Fed inflation-fighting credibility. And if we add to this list that 1yr and 10yr inflation BEs have been probing the bottom end of their respective […]

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