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2015 Commentaries

Hate cannot drive out hate: only love can do that

As our long time readers know, I do not write on a set schedule. I have no daily, weekly or monthly research product. I write when I believe there is something important to say. And my number one rule is to never waste your time. We are all sadly short time, with no easy way […]

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Fed postgame, BoJ pregame, Mets no game

By now everyone knows the Fed statement was “hawkish”. First, they removed following sentence on international risks – “Recent global economic and financial developments may restrain economic activity somewhat and are likely to put further downward pressure on inflation in the near term.” Then they upgraded the assessment of household spending and business fixed investment. […]

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Tutto Bene

I honestly do not enjoy writing commentaries which basically say “see I told you so”. But after spending the last two months talking so many of our clients off the ledge, and banging the table on the overall efficacy of QE, I feel a victory lap is in order. So if you will be annoyed […]

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Armageddon rejected –AGAIN

It has been about 2 months since the great market meltdown of 2015 began! The Chinese devaluation kicked things off in late August, sending spoos from about 2100 to the mid 1800s in a heartbeat. Then, just as the market became somewhat comfortable with idea that “sinomageddon” risks were overblown, Janet the fear mongerer walked […]

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The amazing U6 rate

Friday’s employment report was a bit weak relative to the most recent trends. Only 142k new jobs were created, there were negative revisions to the last few months, wage growth slowed and hours worked fell. But hidden in the moderate softness was one very bright spot – the U6 rate. It dropped 0.3% to a […]

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Some tough love from Carl

By now most of you have probably watched Carl Icahn’s infomercial for the coming apocalypse in high yield debt markets.  If not just click here – – it’s well worth the time. And after viewing his vituperation of low interest rates, and more generally the unprecedented levels accommodative monetary policy over the last 6 years, it […]

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