2020 Commentaries
Spoos and J's
The end of the year is always a time for deep reflections – a time to step away from the myopic, day-to-day headlines and take a broader look at both markets and fundamentals. Most importantly, though, for me, it’s a time to think about past trading successes and failures, so as to use those lessons in forming a better launching point […]
Escape from New York
In the 1981 John Carpenter cult classic Escape from New York, Snake Plisskin (a 20-something Kurt Russell) is sent onto the dystopian streets of Manhattan to rescue a kidnapped POTUS. The setting is in the future, 1997, when crime across the US is rampant and Manhattan has been converted into a walled-off, lawless prison under self-rule […]
Dammit Janet, I missed those Jell-O shots
Janet Yellen is back!! So you know what that means?? I get to stroll down memory lane and bring back a few vintage commentaries from the 2013 era, when she was first nominated to the big leagues as Fed chair in waiting. Two of my favorites from that time are Dump the Hater-Adele & Grab One […]
Cement in the toilet
During the GFC, as foreclosures and evictions skyrocketed, angry homeowners began to take out their frustrations directly on their residences. Many folks never really understood the 2/28 or 3/27 pay-option ARM mortgage contracts into which they entered. And when the payments jumped to L+800bps after the initial teaser period, they felt jilted. These folks had been duped by the […]
The Handoff
The price action since last Monday, after the Pfizer vaccine announcement, has offered up a courtside seat for what’s in store during the upcoming recovery phase of this cycle. Even though it will be a few quarters until the needles start pricking, forward-looking markets are doing what they always do best – look forward! And what […]
A hard center, an easy Fed, and a firm labor market
Here are a few quick thoughts on the election, the Fed, and payrolls: 1. While there still exists plenty of election uncertainty, the main takeaway is that radicalism on all sides appears to have been repudiated. Republicans are almost certain to keep the Senate and gain markedly in the House, while Democrats look very likely […]