2022 Commentaries

This ain’t no party, this ain’t no disco, this ain’t no fooling around

These are complicated times. Serious fires are raging all across the financial markets. The HY new-issue market has largely shut down over the last couple weeks, 5yr MBS have now transformed themselves into 15yr securities, biotech stocks are probing 5-year lows, and many high-profile tech stocks are down 80-90% from the peaks. There is enormous […]

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Heartbreaker, your time has come

I made a conscious decision to lie low during the month of April, writing only one commentary. I felt that during the first quarter of 2022 I had written more than enough on the idea that excessive Fed hawkishness would lead to stresses for risk assets. And there was really no reason to keep beating […]

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The inflation killing fields

The Q1 2022 CPI prints are now in the books; and for the Fed, they leave an ugly mark on an otherwise stellar 40-year record of inflation slaying. The numbers for the last three months accelerated aggressively, coming in at 0.6%, 0.8%, and a whopping 1.2%, respectively. These monthly readings now take the year-over-year CPI from […]

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A warm market welcome for Jay’s Volckeresque move

Before making a few observations about the hawkish FOMC liftoff this week, let me say a few words on Tuesday’s sobering Zoom conversation with Niall Ferguson. For those who were not able to tune in, you can get the link by request from your salesperson. First and foremost, I want to reiterate that ALL geopolitical […]

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A macro zoom with special guest Niall Ferguson

Geopolitical risks have added significant complications to an already strained macro-economic outlook for 2022. In order to better understand how these risks will evolve, I will be hosting a fireside chat via zoom with Niall Ferguson. The event will take place Tuesday March 15, from 9–10am EST. I cannot think of a more qualified individual to […]

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Armchair experts in epidemiology pivot to polemology

In March 2020, as the reality of COVID began to sink into financial markets, I began writing quite actively on the potential for Fed action. These were some of my commentary titles from back then: March 1: “Go Early, Go Big” March 23: “The Fed and Treasury are not waiting around for Congress” March 31: […]

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