2022 Commentaries

Sometimes love don't feel like it should

Since my last commentary three weeks ago, images of Rihanna belting out “just gonna stand there and watch me burn” certainly have become even more appropriate for describing market price action. And to be sure, the PNL inferno on this ride back down to the June lows in spoos feels much nastier. This time, the […]

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Just gonna stand there and watch me burn?

Released back in 2010, the song “Love the way you lie” by Eminem and Rihanna expressed all the passion and pain associated with a turbulent love/hate relationship. The original songwriter, Skylar Grey, claimed the song was written about her volatile exchanges with music industry executives, but the lyrics could easily be applied to many types […]

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Bottom picking is a mess activity

Let’s start today with a couple fun facts. First, the US economy contracted in the first half of 2022 – specifically, Q1 and Q2 GDP growth came in at annualized rates of -1.6% and -0.9%, respectively. As such, we spent less on goods and services over the first six months of 2022 than we did […]

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Jay knew about Q2 GDP

Here is the single most important excerpt from Jay’s press conference on Wednesday: …as it relates to September, I said that another unusually large increase could be appropriate. But that’s not a decision we’re making now. It’s one that we’ll make based on the data we see, and we’re going to be making decisions meeting […]

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How about 100bps and an abandonment of forward guidance?

The most interesting outcome from the ECB meeting last week was not the larger-than-expected 50 bps hike, nor was it the unanimous decision to create an uncapped and ratings-free anti-fragmentation tool. Rather, it was the decision to completely ditch any and all forward guidance. Recall that forward guidance had been developed by the major central […]

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One month ago, just before the last FOMC meeting, I penned the following lines in a note entitled “Jay’s Volcker Moment”: Jay is going to act, and act aggressively!!! That surely brings 75bps into play on Wednesday. And one could make a very cogent argument for guidance towards multiple 75s…. And while the market may wobble […]

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