Site logo

2024 Commentaries

FOMC thoughts, upcoming events, and the vault

Before providing a few comments on the results of today’s FOMC meeting, I wanted to take care of two unrelated issues. First up, a quick logistical update. Below is list of my upcoming speaking events in May and June. If you would like to participate in, or check availability for, any of these, please contact […]

read more

Fiscal Policy, Inflation, Treasury Yields, and Gold

Before addressing some key macro issues that have dominated my recent discussions with clients, let me say a word about geopolitics. There are plenty of financial market professionals who fancy themselves armchair polemologists. These folks try desperately to translate their amateur geopolitical views back into a set of short-term market predictions. And almost always, they […]

read more

We don't need rate cuts to get risk assets to go higher

The CNBC video below from one month ago, after the hotter CPI prints to start the year, is worth revisiting today. I particularly like the title CNBC chose to go with for the clip: “We don’t need rate cuts to get risk assets to go higher, says Jefferies’ David Zervos” Here are a few follow-up […]

read more

Is sustained QE the key to a higher r-star?

Before tackling today’s topic, I want to respond to the many readers who reached out after a technical glitch in our new publishing system accidently sent two old notes from 2020 to my entire distribution list last Friday. I was worried that this would annoy folks who value my minimalist approach to writing. But instead, […]

read more

A controlled burning of debt obligations

I do not usually comment on market reactions to a single piece of data, but the ripfest in spoos after yesterday’s higher than expected 0.4% print in core CPI is worth a shout out. Prior to the release of market moving economic data, such as NFP or CPI, the dealer community typically provides a matrix […]

read more

The "higher for longer rate/stronger for longer growth" narrative

For over a year I have tried to convince clients, colleagues, and competitors that the colossal size of global central bank balance sheets has been deeply underappreciated by the macroeconomic forecasting community. The long-term stimulative effects from these balance sheets caused many folks to consistently overestimate the true level of restrictiveness for monetary policy. In […]

read more

error: Content is protected !!