Since the election Janet has tightened monetary policy at the December, March, June, and September FOMC meetings. In her latest move this past Wednesday, she kicked off balance sheet normalization and signaled strongly that next December would be a "live” meeting. Now...
Every August I try to check out from both client activity and market commentary. Of course, if trading conditions warrant (as they did in 2011 and 2015), then I write. But if nothing of substance occurs, I prefer to use this time to rest up for what is always a very...
The US CPI has missed market expectations on the downside for the last four months, crashing to a growth rate of 1.6% YoY most recently, from 2.7% YoY back in February. At the same time, core CPI growth has dropped back to 1.7% YoY, and core PCE price index growth has...
A few weeks ago, in a commentary entitled “The terminal funds rate,” I began to flirt with returning towards a positive view on risk parity trades. Looking back, it has been about a year since I recommended the spoo side of that trade – and about 18 months since I had...
On Wednesday we will almost surely get the fourth rate hike of this cycle. And just as a reminder to all the folks who used to think the Fed could never raise rates again without sending us into a 1937-style second Great Depression – uh... that was a really dumb...
On Wednesday we will almost surely get the fourth rate hike of this cycle. And just as a reminder to all the folks who used to think the Fed could never raise rates again without sending us into a 1937-style second Great Depression – uh... that was a really dumb idea!! But let's not dwell […]
