I am going to make a bold claim today: US inflation is shockingly high. Now of course, with core PCE at 1.5% and core CPI at 1.9%, your first reaction might be "That Zervos dude is out of his mind – again!" But bear with me; I think I can convince you that this claim...
Expectations for fiscal and regulatory easing, along with a modest withdrawal of monetary accommodation, created a post-election tailwind for spoos, the USD, and Treasury yields. And to be sure, this tailwind occasionally blew with gale force (particularly in the...
I have been struggling for a couple weeks now to find anything exciting to discuss in these commentaries. Our European political view seems to have panned out reasonably well with moves towards the center in both the Netherlands and France. It appears, at least for...
For the last 16 months I have spent very little time in these notes focusing on Europe. ECB reticence to act aggressively post the policy debacle of Dec 2015, combined with high levels of political uncertainty into 2017, created a very poor risk/reward outlook for...
I imagine that as the finishing touches were being placed on the Fed minutes from the second floor of the Eccles building late this past Tuesday evening, the authors were all thinking - "I wonder how large the bond and stock market sell off will be after the...
I imagine that as the finishing touches were being placed on the Fed minutes from the second floor of the Eccles building late this past Tuesday evening, the authors were all thinking - "I wonder how large the bond and stock market sell off will be after the release?". Everything about these minutes were hawkish […]
