I imagine that as the finishing touches were being placed on the Fed minutes from the second floor of the Eccles building late this past Tuesday evening, the authors were all thinking - "I wonder how large the bond and stock market sell off will be after the...
I realize that I have not written any notes since mid March - and I wanted to just give everyone an update on my brief hiatus from market commentary. Unfortunately, I needed to have two abdominal hernias surgically removed about a week ago. And naturally this has...
It was just about one year ago that the market was licking its wounds from a second China devaluation scare. Back then I was writing notes such as “The Chinese Monkey on Our Back” (11-Feb-16), “Detente Between the Fed and PBOC Makes Spoos and Blues the Winner”...
Based on rhetoric, it would be easy to claim that Trump’s foreign policy goal with respect to Europe is to encourage a breakdown. He has consistently praised the Brexit vote, explicitly stated that the EU is likely to fracture, and emphatically implied that the end of...
On Valentine's Day back in 2014, when we were in full Spoos & Q's mode, I penned the following poem: Roses are red Violets are blue Janet's a dove Buy more spoo Then on Valentine's Day in 2015, when we were loving the Dax & Dollar trade, I put...
“Stability leads to instability” is one of Hyman Minsky’s most famous quotes. And his theory that complacency and confidence sow the seeds of future economic crises has become almost universally accepted across academic, policy-making, and financial-market circles....
Since 2013, the concept of "secular stagnation" has become a key focus for both markets and policy makers. For those who need a quick refresher, the proponents of this idea argue that a combination of weak investment and strong savings causes a drop in both the...
Over the last two months my market discussions with clients and colleagues have centered exclusively on the expectations for Trump economic policies – specifically fiscal policy, regulatory policy, immigration policy, trade policy, and monetary policy. And in...
As our long time readers know, I do not write on a set schedule. I have no daily, weekly or monthly research product. I write when I believe there is something important to say. And my number one rule is to never waste your time. We are all sadly short time, with no...
By now everyone knows the Fed statement was “hawkish”. First, they removed following sentence on international risks – “Recent global economic and financial developments may restrain economic activity somewhat and are likely to put further downward pressure on...
By now everyone knows the Fed statement was “hawkish”. First, they removed following sentence on international risks – “Recent global economic and financial developments may restrain economic activity somewhat and are likely to put further downward pressure on inflation in the near term.” Then they upgraded the assessment of household spending and business fixed investment. […]
