Hawkish hype surely gained traction in the lead-up to Jay’s first FOMC meeting this week. Talk of four – and whispers of even five – rate hikes in 2018 was becoming ubiquitous. But in the end Jay delivered a calm, cool, and clean FOMC rate-hike decision. His...
Janet was always convinced that there existed excess labor market slack in the post-crisis economy. And as such, the low participation rate and low employment-to-population ratio were never permanent fixtures in her long-run economic view. She also believed that...
Well, it had to happen at some point. We all knew Trump had the power to set tariffs unilaterally as long as he invoked national security concerns. And steel and aluminum were certainly natural candidates. The questions now of course center on international escalation...
A new Fed chair does not enjoy all the luxuries afforded a veteran. Small missteps can create plenty of anxiety in markets. We all got to know Janet, Ben, and Alan over many years. But it did take a while, and looking back at the initial courtship periods, there was...
Ten-year US Treasury yields have backed up about 50bps to start the year. And to be sure, there exists no topic more discussed in financial markets than what’s behind this rate move. The two most common explanations I hear from clients and colleagues are: Higher...
So much for the haters’ time in the sunshine. Those all too familiar dark clouds came through last week to dump plenty of rain on the “it’s all going to go horribly wrong” parade. By Friday this camp must have been sitting at their desks with faces-in-palms wondering...
Last week created some handsome dividends for the haters!! If you have been beating the drum about instability from short volatility positions, or dangers associated with crowded passive investment strategies, or risks of an outsized inflation shock, it really doesn’t...
There are some great movies based on catastrophic first days on the job: Men in Black, The Devil Wears Prada, and Inception, just to name a few. But for me the best has to be Training Day, where Ethan Hawke plays Jake Hoyt, a rookie policeman who pretty much has the...
Last Friday’s price action was both aggressive and unusual. Spoos rinsed 65 points while cash 10s and blues sold off 6bps in the wake of strong employment and wage data. Generally, large-scale risk asset sell-offs have been accompanied by sharp DROPS in rates during...
The picture surrounding Federal Reserve Board nominations took a somewhat unexpected turn over the last couple weeks as John Williams was floated as a potential candidate for vice chair. Now, to be sure, John has had a very distinguished career inside the Federal...
The picture surrounding Federal Reserve Board nominations took a somewhat unexpected turn over the last couple weeks as John Williams was floated as a potential candidate for vice chair. Now, to be sure, John has had a very distinguished career inside the Federal Reserve System. He started as a staff member at the Board in 1994. He […]
