Definition of symmetry: The quality of being made up of exactly similar parts facing each other or around an axis. Correspondence in size, shape, and relative position of parts on opposite sides of a dividing line or median plane or about a center or axis. ———— The...
It’s not often that I read a WSJ editorial and think - “WOW...that was fantastic”. But it happened with this piece from the weekend: https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-return-of-3-growth-1532731513 I highly recommend talking the time to read it. And once you finish,...
I cannot imagine anyone realistically thought that opining on Fed policy would be off limits for Trump. He has managed to push the boundaries of traditional Presidential commentary on virtually every policy front – why should monetary policy be the exception? In fact,...
Today’s payroll data is yet another punch in the gut to those arguing for a sharp rise in inflation pressures. Wage growth came in 0.1% below consensus at the same time payroll growth beat expectations handsomely. The rise in the participation rate, and the...
Last week was yet another lesson in trade fading. Threats of US tariff increases on $200b of Chinese goods, along with a proposed 20% tariff on car imports from Europe, caused the markets to wobble for a few hours. Then of course the perfunctory fading began. I’m not...
I would characterize todays’s FOMC announcement as essentially meeting slightly hawkish expectations. Here is what we learned: No changes to estimates of the NAIRU or r-star. There were some very small tweaks to the path by which we get to equilibrium though. And with...
Will they lower their estimate of the NAIRU? Will they raise their estimate of r-star? Will they drop the following two lines from the statement: “The federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run”...
Last week the unemployment rate hit a cycle low of 3.8%, a level that was last seen in April 2000, at the very end of the Goldilocks era. Prior to that you would have to go all the way back to the “golden age” of the late 1960s in order to find rates this low....
I have only written a couple times on Europe over the last 18 months. Once in the lead-up to the Dutch election and again in the lead-up to the French election. The titles of those notes were “Trump, the great unifier of Europe” and “Trump, the great unifier of...
Those folks in the 4 hikes in 2018/4 hikes in 2019 camp are probably not too happy after reading the May FOMC minutes. Here are a couple of excerpts that probably stung a little: “… some participants noted it might soon be appropriate to revise the forward-guidance...
Those folks in the 4 hikes in 2018/4 hikes in 2019 camp are probably not too happy after reading the May FOMC minutes. Here are a couple of excerpts that probably stung a little: “… some participants noted it might soon be appropriate to revise the forward-guidance language in the statement indicating that the ‘federal […]
