Before addressing some key macro issues that have dominated my recent discussions with clients, let me say a word about geopolitics. There are plenty of financial market professionals who fancy themselves armchair polemologists. These folks try desperately to...
The CNBC video below from one month ago, after the hotter CPI prints to start the year, is worth revisiting today. I particularly like the title CNBC chose to go with for the clip: "We don't need rate cuts to get risk assets to go higher, says Jefferies' David Zervos"...
Before tackling today's topic, I want to respond to the many readers who reached out after a technical glitch in our new publishing system accidently sent two old notes from 2020 to my entire distribution list last Friday. I was worried that this would annoy folks who...
I do not usually comment on market reactions to a single piece of data, but the ripfest in spoos after yesterday’s higher than expected 0.4% print in core CPI is worth a shout out. Prior to the release of market moving economic data, such as NFP or CPI, the dealer...
For over a year I have tried to convince clients, colleagues, and competitors that the colossal size of global central bank balance sheets has been deeply underappreciated by the macroeconomic forecasting community. The long-term stimulative effects from these balance...
Not a day goes by without some high-profile market pundit, C-suite executive, politician, or portfolio manager preaching about the grave fiscal risks that face the US. In fact, I would venture to guess that it’s a top 3 discussion point for anyone looking to scare up...
There is plenty of heathy debate out there on the outlook for Fed rate cuts during 2024. And to be sure, you can find just about any forecast you like from the standard pool of professional pundits. Typical examples run something like “They will cut 25bps every...
To start 2024, I have decided to formally bring back the trade that has largely defined my career at Jefferies – risk parity!! I hinted at this in my last note from December; and after further reflection over the holidays, I am now taking the plunge. The bottom line...
Before I begin today let me just say a big thank you to all who gave last week for the charity haircut. In addition to the $100,000 from Jefferies, $152,275 was raised from clients and colleagues. Here are the final stats: Total raised: $252,275 Total # of donors: 614...
I have three separate topics to address today. Let me start with trade given the upcoming G20 meeting. And let me warn you up front that I will be getting quite Machiavellian here. In the end you may think I have gone a bit too far with this, but as I get older, I...
I have three separate topics to address today. Let me start with trade given the upcoming G20 meeting. And let me warn you up front that I will be getting quite Machiavellian here. In the end you may think I have gone a bit too far with this, but as I get older, I find […]
