The market action post Obama's win has been choppy and messy. As the election was settled in the early morning hours of Nov 7th; stocks rallied, the dollar weakened and the long end of the Treasury market sold off. Then came the morning after flush as the words...
In October, after the first presidential debate – equities wobbled, gold fell from grace, the DXY began to rise and the short end of the Treasury market weakened. Once the increased odds of a Romney win were factored into the calculus of asset prices, the math spit...
Two days ago, while many of us on the east coast of the US were hunkered down fighting Sandy, the Bank of Japan quietly disappointed markets - AGAIN! I guess it has been a 20 plus year pattern, so it should come as no surprise. But there has been an unusual level of...
"The lack of money is the root of all evil" - Mark Twain As Ben pumps the system with over 2 billion dollars of freshly minted M0 a day, the markets are quickly starting to take notice. When I strolled by our IG desk yesterday there was panic in people's eyes -...
Back in August, Robert Gordon of Northwestern University published a controversial paper on economic growth - http://faculty-web.at.northwestern.edu/economics/gordon/Is%20US%20Economic%20Growth%20Over.pdf . For anyone looking to temper their optimistic views on the...
If you have not seen "Breaking Bad" you are missing out. It is one of these highly aggressive shock and awe mini-series on cable TV. It’s an addictive cocktail of Quentin Tarantino violence and David Lynch surrealism. In the show a geeky high school chemistry teacher...
US financial markets continue to be infected by elevated systemic risks from Europe. As the FOMC has noted for over a year now - "strains in global financial markets continue to pose significant downside risks to the economic outlook". Of course, we have our own...
Back on April 11th, when the spoo was only up 8 percent on the year, I penned the piece reprinted below [April 11th, Shhh!!! Don't Tell Anyone, Spanish Banks Have Problems] I really enjoyed writing this one. As I watch Spanish and Greek protests on the streets, and...
We have discussed the possibility of a lower IOER for some time now. Ever since the ECB went to a 0 deposit rate, and the Danish went to a -20bp deposit rate, the Fed's policy of a +25bps IOER has become increasingly suspect. The NYFED, and those associated with large...
Last Thursday we hosted John Taylor in NYC for the third installment of our Global Macro Speaker Series. John was asked 12 questions during the hour long session. The "abridged" answers to those questions are below. In the course of the discussion there was also a...
Last Thursday we hosted John Taylor in NYC for the third installment of our Global Macro Speaker Series. John was asked 12 questions during the hour long session. The "abridged" answers to those questions are below. In the course of the discussion there was also a very interesting thread that was not part of the […]
