Since 2009 we have all come to understand who has our back when it all goes wrong. Our beloved Colonel, and his allies at the BoE, ECB, SNB and BoJ, have always stepped in when times got tough. With their oversized fire hoses, they spray the streets with so much...
In the last couple weeks the lines between US fiscal and monetary policy became uncomfortably blurred. In response to the impending US debt ceiling constraint on government spending, a number of prominent economists, congressmen, pundits and bloggers advocated that...
In Jan 2012, the FOMC released the SEP showing that 3 participants saw the Fed Funds rate rising buy the end of 2012 - one member was at 50bps and two were at 1 percent. By the time we got to April 2012 there was one at 50bps, one at 1 percent and one at […]...
In the last 6 months I have tried to spend as little time as possible discussing the fiscal cliff. It was always a farfetched notion that some static, partial equilibrium analysis of a $600b hit to the US economy was going to be relevant. But the markets love a good...
This will be my last note for 2012, and as such I thought it would be most appropriate to review the one theme we have pushed consistently throughout the year. Yes, you guessed it, the third iteration of our rhyming risk-on refrain: spoos and blues. The origin of this...
Back on Nov 1st, when the NKY was below 9000, I wrote a commentary entitled “A lesson on how to lose central bank independence”. The note highlighted a “curious additional release” on the BoJ website after their October policy meeting entitled “Measures Aimed at...
Interpreting the December FOMC statement is not an easy task. The market is still digesting what an explicit 6.5/2.5 "Evans Rule" really means. Is it bullish? Is it bearish? Is there room to miss? Under what conditions would a miss be tolerated? What are the next...
The most interesting story on the global macro horizon has nothing to do with the fiscal cliff, US housing markets, Greece, Argentina, Spain or China. This story has been percolating for decades, and an enormous amount of money has been lost by the global macro...
Black Friday is the annual celebration of American consumerism. The morning after we all sit with our families, gain 5 pounds, and watch some meaningless football match involving the Detroit Lions, we march off to the shops. It starts at 4am as stampedes of fleece...
In Quentin Tarantino's first film, True Romance, the final scene is a classic Mexican standoff. The mob on one side, the cops on another side and a smattering of criminals in the middle. Three parties all ready to take the others down and get out alive. Its a...
In Quentin Tarantino's first film, True Romance, the final scene is a classic Mexican standoff. The mob on one side, the cops on another side and a smattering of criminals in the middle. Three parties all ready to take the others down and get out alive. Its a complicated web of stories that has some […]
