As one might have expected, I received quite a number of responses to Monday's commentary. While there were a few that expressed solidarity with the view that this gold sell-off is a POSITIVE sign for the GLOBAL reflation/recovery trade, most of the replies were...
What a wild week! While it felt great to be back in the risk pool just before last Wednesday's liftathon in spoos; the late week Yen strength, gold meltdown, JGB long-end volatility and Cypriot bailout shenanigans provided plenty to ponder. Of course the long term...
There is no question that the news from Japan has been extremely important for global markets. And to be sure, we have been arguing since November 2012 that significant changes to BoJ policy would be one of the primary drivers of ALL global asset prices in 2013. Some...
For the last couple weeks we have stepped away from our multi-year risk-on views. The news in Cyprus was enough to temporarily change the game. And while many folks have questioned our HIGHLY unusual bout of nervousness over such a small country, I suspect that once...
The BoJ has at least 10 different policy levers to operate within the market place - the amount of JGB purchases, the average maturity of JGB purchases, the amount of CP purchases, the amount of non-financial BBB corporate purchases, the amount of JREIT purchases, the...
The Sunday evening Cypriot bail-in deal shows that the Germans are willing to go to great lengths to secure a political win. And let’s be clear, what was agreed last night was a HUGE win for Merkel. She silenced SPD critics on the issue of bailing out Russian...
There were no big surprises in the Fed statement or at Ben's press conference yesterday. The Committee tweaked the growth and inflation forecasts modestly weaker, gave a nod to fiscal policy risks and talked up some of the recent positives in the US data. The market...
What happened to Cyprus on Friday evening was one of the most significant developments in the Eurozone since the Greek election last summer. To tax the bank deposits of savers sends an ominous message to the entire global investment community. All of us should really...
One of the most common phrases I hear in the market is - "this is going to end badly". You hear it from Presidents of Federal Reserve Banks, Congressmen, gloom and doom market pundits, disgruntled fund managers who missed the risk rally and German politicians just to...
Ok, I am going to be a bit of a geek today. So no Breaking Bad, Colonel Jessup or Charlie Sheen references. Sorry to disappoint but there are some serious changes under way in market correlation patterns. And these need to be addressed. Specifically, the USD is...
Ok, I am going to be a bit of a geek today. So no Breaking Bad, Colonel Jessup or Charlie Sheen references. Sorry to disappoint but there are some serious changes under way in market correlation patterns. And these need to be addressed. Specifically, the USD is strengthening sharply as seen in the near 4 […]
