There is no question that Larry Summers was the Administration's favorite to be the next Fed Chairman. And there is no question that his confirmation process would have been highly combative, creating some severe increases in market, and even economic, volatility. But...
The payroll report is NOT indicative of an economy that's killing it! Net of 2 month revisions, we added less than 100k new jobs this month. Also the household survey showed a drop of 115k jobs last month - and the only reason the U-rate fell to 7.3 is because 312k...
"The degree of central bank independence varies considerably across countries. Several authors including Bade and Parkin (1982), Alesina (1988,1989) and Grilli, Masciandaro, and Tabellini (1991) found that more independent central banks are associated with lower...
"Actions speak louder than words." "Talk is cheap." "Speak softly and carry a big stick." These are common aphorisms which have been used historically to admonish those with loquacious tendencies to pipe down. They are words of wisdom-and something our central bankers...
Throughout US economic history there have been many "Great" events - The Great Depression of the 30s; The Great Inflation of the 70s; The Great Moderation of the mid 80s to mid 00s; and of course The Great Recession of the late 00s. Now we can add another "Great" to...
The jobs data was soft. - Payrolls missed by 23k and there were 26k of revisions lower to past months - so a 50k miss - Hours worked was softer - Average hourly earnings was MUCH softer - The U-rate did fall to 7.4, but on a lower participation rate (by 0.1) The...
Yesterday's Fed statement was dovish. First, growth expectations were implicitly lowered by the stealth use of the word "modest" instead of "moderate". Second, the increased risks of disinflation were highlighted via the insertion of a new statement suggesting - "the...
The last 2 months have been tough for fixed income investors - especially levered ones. QE front runners, who followed our beloved colonel down the road to recovery by holding excess Agency MBS and long term USTs, were just given the "PFC Santiago" treatment. It was a...
First of all, hats off to Paul Krugman. Anyone who can successfully weave "The Chewbacca Defense" from South Park episode 27 into a macroeconomic commentary is certainly worthy of the title Nobel Laureate. Bravo Paul, your recent missive -...
QE is working VERY well. Jobs are being generated; consumer and business sentiment are back above pre-crisis levels; home prices are rising at double digit annualized rates; and risk-asset prices are at record highs. Much to the dismay of the haters and the doomers,...
QE is working VERY well. Jobs are being generated; consumer and business sentiment are back above pre-crisis levels; home prices are rising at double digit annualized rates; and risk-asset prices are at record highs. Much to the dismay of the haters and the doomers, the medicine has been effective. And importantly, the two most popular […]
