Throughout US economic history there have been many "Great" events - The Great Depression of the 30s; The Great Inflation of the 70s; The Great Moderation of the mid 80s to mid 00s; and of course The Great Recession of the late 00s. Now we can add another "Great" to...
The jobs data was soft. - Payrolls missed by 23k and there were 26k of revisions lower to past months - so a 50k miss - Hours worked was softer - Average hourly earnings was MUCH softer - The U-rate did fall to 7.4, but on a lower participation rate (by 0.1) The...
Yesterday's Fed statement was dovish. First, growth expectations were implicitly lowered by the stealth use of the word "modest" instead of "moderate". Second, the increased risks of disinflation were highlighted via the insertion of a new statement suggesting - "the...
The last 2 months have been tough for fixed income investors - especially levered ones. QE front runners, who followed our beloved colonel down the road to recovery by holding excess Agency MBS and long term USTs, were just given the "PFC Santiago" treatment. It was a...
First of all, hats off to Paul Krugman. Anyone who can successfully weave "The Chewbacca Defense" from South Park episode 27 into a macroeconomic commentary is certainly worthy of the title Nobel Laureate. Bravo Paul, your recent missive -...
QE is working VERY well. Jobs are being generated; consumer and business sentiment are back above pre-crisis levels; home prices are rising at double digit annualized rates; and risk-asset prices are at record highs. Much to the dismay of the haters and the doomers,...
Back in the early ‘70s, as the oil price shock began to hit hard, speed limits in the US were cut to 55mph. The government, in an attempt to limit fuel consumption, came up with fancy slogans like "Fifty is Thrifty" and "Speed Kills" in order to justify the lower...
We have been happily living on QE transfusions for the better part of 4 years. These pain killers have made the healing from our crisis not just tolerable, but actually quite enjoyable (at least for those that sipped the cocktail). That said, the drink has many side...
Non-traditional monetary policy is working across developed markets to heal the wounds incurred during our global financial crisis. Risk free real rates have been driven aggressively lower, and the portfolio balance channel has forced investors out of less productive...
Days like Thursday are simply beautiful: Blues +15 Spoos +25 Gold -17 It had been one heck of a pull back in our long time favorite trade - spoos and blues. So a healthy 3 percent upmove, which brought us back to +12% YTD, felt like a major victory after some...
Days like Thursday are simply beautiful: Blues +15 Spoos +25 Gold -17 It had been one heck of a pull back in our long time favorite trade - spoos and blues. So a healthy 3 percent upmove, which brought us back to +12% YTD, felt like a major victory after some difficult trading conditions in […]
