From the close of business on 30-Sep to the close of business on 10-Oct, while the US government was shut, the following market moves took place: VIX: 16.6 -> 16.48, -0.12 SPX: 1682 -> 1693, +11 10y: 2.61 -> 2.68, +0.07 EDZ6: 97.74 -> 97.76, + 0.02 MOVE: 80.16 ->...
Back in 2011 I put out a number of commentaries on the debt ceiling showdown. I was thinking about something new to write on this subject given the current situation, but everything was just a rehash of previous thoughts. As such, I am reprinting excerpts from two old...
"We the people are the rightful masters of both Congress and the courts, not to overthrow the Constitution but to overthrow the men who pervert the Constitution.” - Abraham Lincoln "The threat of defaulting on government obligations is a powerful weapon, especially in...
I don't know how many times I have heard the words "pushing on a string" from the QE-hater community, but it certainly has been in the thousands, maybe even the tens of thousands. When I hear those four words I usually just get out my chart of spoos, or the nikkei,...
I have to admit, even as bullish risk assets as I am, and as happy as I am today with a spoos and chartreuse position, I didn't believe these guys would deliver so strongly on the dovish side. My hat's off to my colleague Ward McCarthy who stuck to his guns throughout...
Over the last couple months the Obama administration made it clear to all who would listen that Larry Summers was their choice for Fed Chairman. And by last week, most folks on both the investment side and policy side were resigned to the idea of a Summers Fed. There...
There is no question that Larry Summers was the Administration's favorite to be the next Fed Chairman. And there is no question that his confirmation process would have been highly combative, creating some severe increases in market, and even economic, volatility. But...
The payroll report is NOT indicative of an economy that's killing it! Net of 2 month revisions, we added less than 100k new jobs this month. Also the household survey showed a drop of 115k jobs last month - and the only reason the U-rate fell to 7.3 is because 312k...
"The degree of central bank independence varies considerably across countries. Several authors including Bade and Parkin (1982), Alesina (1988,1989) and Grilli, Masciandaro, and Tabellini (1991) found that more independent central banks are associated with lower...
"Actions speak louder than words." "Talk is cheap." "Speak softly and carry a big stick." These are common aphorisms which have been used historically to admonish those with loquacious tendencies to pipe down. They are words of wisdom-and something our central bankers...
"Actions speak louder than words." "Talk is cheap." "Speak softly and carry a big stick." These are common aphorisms which have been used historically to admonish those with loquacious tendencies to pipe down. They are words of wisdom-and something our central bankers should think about long and hard. The release of the minutes yesterday confirms […]
