I thought this very concise commentary below from over 13 years ago would be a nice way to kick off September. The Fed put structure has been a critical feature in my writing since first starting at Jefferies nearly 15 years ago. The put has come a long way, through...
As a good Greek, I tried my best to disengage from work during the month of August and rest up before hitting the road on an unusually aggressive fall travel schedule. That said, in the early part of the month, I felt obliged to write a quick note from the beaches of...
The Fed, the BoJ, payrolls, the US presidential election race, tech earnings, and the escalation in the Middle East have all conspired to create some heavy derisking. Volatility was low, and complacency was high heading into the mid-July all-time highs for spoos. And...
Before launching into today's missive, I want to highlight an upcoming conference call which will take place on Thursday, August 1st. In virtually every meeting with clients over the last few months, the dominant focus has been the US Presidential election. Sure,...
Over the last three weeks, the odds of a Trump victory have jumped markedly. Biden's debate performance, Trump's judicial wins, and the awful events in Bethel Park last Saturday have all contributed to the shift. And while other macro forces such as softer inflation...
Long Streetsmarts, Short Booksmarts: 10-Jan-2017 Over the last two months my market discussions with clients and colleagues have centered exclusively on the expectations for Trump economic policies – specifically fiscal policy, regulatory policy, immigration policy,...
Today, I would like to address a topic that many pundits have deemed a negative risk factor for overall equity market performance: the issue of concentration. For the record, I discussed this topic last week in a CNBC segment, which you can access here. In a nutshell,...
With less than 140 days to go until the US Presidential election, the policy differences between Trump and Biden are becoming a key focus for financial markets. Looking back to 2016, I wrote a handful of notes on the likely market impact from Trump vs. Clinton policy...
The critical message from Wednesday’s FOMC meeting was not a hawkish one. Yes, the committee changed their year end-2024 rate cut projection from 75bps to 25bps. And as a consequence, the knee-jerk pundit reaction was to deem the postponement in cuts as hawkish. But...
As promised, I will always start out the new month with a blast from the past. This piece below from 2019 might be my favorite on the relative importance of monetary vs fiscal policy. Enjoy!!! $1.9 trillion of crowding out, pork, and redistribution - January 20, 2019...
As promised, I will always start out the new month with a blast from the past. This piece below from 2019 might be my favorite on the relative importance of monetary vs fiscal policy. Enjoy!!! $1.9 trillion of crowding out, pork, and redistribution - January 20, 2019 In November of 1968, Milton Friedman and Walter […]
