Earlier this week I sent out a commentary entitled "Because I'm Happy" where I discussed a few takeaways from our recent Global Macro Speaker Series event with Larry Summers. Of course, as with everything I write, this represented my interpretations, my inferences and...
I, like most of you, have been bombarded with emails on the Russian military movement into the Ukraine. And I, like most of you, am not an expert on this subject. Thus, it is surprising to me how many folks have sent me such confident analysis on the inner workings of...
A valentine's poem for the lovers: Roses are red Violets are blue Janet's a dove Buy more spoo Last week was certainly a week for the lovers. Q's broke to new cyclical highs, spoos moved to within just a few points of all time record highs, and Friday was St....
Janet highlights - " Too many Americans remain unemployed, inflation remains below our longer-run objective, and the work of making the financial system more robust has not yet been completed" "...the recovery in the labor market is far from complete. The unemployment...
While the establishment data confirms some Q1 softness in labor market conditions, the household survey tells a very different story. From U-3 to U-6, the numbers were very "frisky", with an amazing 500k+ increase in the workforce, and 600k+ increase in employment....
The first 23 days of 2014 were about as boring as any three-week period in recent memory. By the close of business on Thursday the 23rd of January, the year-to-date moves for most of the active developed asset markets were minuscule: Spoos -1% Q's +1% EURUSD unch...
The December payroll report does NOT suggest that labor market momentum is increasing. The modest 78k increase in payrolls, plus the 34k in positive revisions barely gets us half of what was expected. But the most concerning part of the report comes from the household...
Catchy title huh? But I'm sorry to disappoint all the haters out there, I will not be referring to a crash in risk assets. I will leave that exercise in futility for the doomsayers and goldbugs who have been calling for Armegeddon since 900 on the spoo! Instead I'm...
We just saw one of the "easiest" Fed removals of accommodation in history. And as mentioned previously, this meeting was one of the closest calls in recent memory. Here is what I wrote on Dec 10th in a commentary entitled "Smaller or Later Redux" - "As for the market...
We just saw one of the "easiest" Fed removals of accommodation in history. And as mentioned previously, this meeting was one of the closest calls in recent memory. Here is what I wrote on Dec 10th in a commentary entitled "Smaller or Later Redux" - "As for the market reaction to the upcoming FOMC meeting, […]
