The RUB collapse earlier this week opened up many old wounds. Those who were on trading floors in the Fall of 1998 can easily recall the chaos which ensued post the Russia default. GKOs were in free fall, Russia 28s traded down to single digit dollar prices and the...
Spotting a bubble is never easy. And determining the root causes of a bubble is also never easy. It usually takes years of retrofitting to understand all of the dynamics behind bubble creation and bubble popping. Even today the debates rage on the sources of our US...
The US employment data were VERY strong. QE has worked its magic and the FOMC will be looking to remove accommodation sooner than the market thinks. As we have discussed before, the communications surrounding this accommodation removal will be complicated, and policy...
There was something quite sad about watching Mario speak today. The aggressiveness of his words just 2 weeks ago failed echo through today's discourse. And when he was asked about the inconsistency between his purported desire to "move without delay" and his the...
Here is my one paragraph, quick and dirty, abridged version of Mario's speech: "we cannot be complacent - we have to be very watchful that low inflation does not start percolating through the economy.....if inflation expectations fall, the real interest rate...
Before I kick off today's note, I want to remind everyone who has not already done so to open the link below and fill out the requested information. https://www.jefferies.com/zervos/register.aspx This will be the last commentary sent via our old Bloomberg based...
It was an epic Friday in Japan. Haruhiko (aka Harry) Kuroda gave us something as rare as 30 year old Hibiki - a positive monetary policy surprise. In BoJ history, one can only find a handful of instances where policy accommodation surprised to the upside. But that...
By now a more hawkish FOMC statement has settled into market prices - spoos are down, the USD is stronger and the curve is flatter (with CT30 actually rallying). However, by recent standards, these moves have been relatively minor. The market took an upbeat labor...
Back on September 15th I put out a commentary entitled "Are you ready for the big rally?". In that piece I tried to describe how Fed miscommunication, and market volatility, were likely to "rally" markedly as the taper process ended. This was of course was a...
During this past year I have put forward a couple of love songs for Janet. The first was that Rocky Horror Picture Show classic - "Dammit Janet". And the second was from Guns and Roses - "Patience". Both seemed very appropriate during the time of a slow, steady and...
During this past year I have put forward a couple of love songs for Janet. The first was that Rocky Horror Picture Show classic - "Dammit Janet". And the second was from Guns and Roses - "Patience". Both seemed very appropriate during the time of a slow, steady and well-defined taper. But given the events […]
