Here are the opening lines from that 1976 classic by Thin Lizzy "The Boys are Back in Town": Guess who just got back today Them wild-eyed boys that had been away Haven't changed that much to say But man, I still think them cats are crazy It's two days into the post summer vacation trading […]

From 2010-2014 we at Jefferies argued quite strongly that the QE policies from the FOMC would work to reflate US risk asset markets, in particular US stocks. And to be sure, during that 5 year period we encountered our fair share of QE haters. Early on, the hater view was centered upon a Japanese style […]

Although I think the debate on a Sep, Oct or Dec liftoff could be one of the most banal in Fed watching history, I understand that many investors feel differently. There are plenty of folks who have no choice but to keep an allocation to US assets - and hence a month of liftoff differential […]

This will be my fourth commentary of the week, which I think may be a record. However, given the extraordinary price action, an excessive quantity of verbiage has sadly been necessary. And please remember, my number one rule is to only write when there is something worthy of your time. That said, I do believe […]

A wise friend and excellent hedge fund manager from DC sent me following fabulous line for a commentary title: "Today's exercise: If spoo > x, then liftoff. Solve for x". It was a play on a commentary I wrote back in June 2011 entitled "Today's exercise: If spoo < x, then QE3, solve for x". […]

I have built and estimated a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) economic model of the global economy which can fully explain the recent market crash dynamics. My model incorporates sticky wages/prices, a monetary sector built around cash in advance constraints, habit formation, time to build capital constraints, and variable capacity utilization. The estimation utilizes Bayesian […]

This was always going to be a difficult year in U.S. markets. Turning the interest rate cycle without a market hick-up, after such an unprecedented and aggressive easing, would require near super human policy-making talent. In the end, I'm not sure anyone could have actually got the job done without serious market dislocations. And right […]

Given the price action I thought it prudent to write something again during my attempted holiday. Below are 2 paragraphs from last week's note on the Chinese devaluation. Please read them again as I believe they accurately predict this "temporary" digression towards the sloppy market price action we have witnessed this week: ------------ "So the […]

I had hoped for some mind-clearing relaxation in August, but the PBOC decided to turn these calm holiday markets into a confused liquidity starved tsunami. And as I did promise to write from my holiday if anything important happened, I feel obliged to make a few observations. So let me start off by saying that […]

August is a wonderful month for reflection. For me it is always a time with very few client meetings, conferences or speaking engagements. And most importantly, it offers a welcome break from airports, hotels, taxis and suitcases. Of course the markets do not always cooperate  - such as in 2007, 2008 and 2011. But even […]