From 2010-2014 we at Jefferies argued quite strongly that the QE policies from the FOMC would work to reflate US risk asset markets, in particular US stocks. And to be sure, during that 5 year period we encountered our fair share of QE haters. Early on, the hater view...
Although I think the debate on a Sep, Oct or Dec liftoff could be one of the most banal in Fed watching history, I understand that many investors feel differently. There are plenty of folks who have no choice but to keep an allocation to US assets - and hence a month...
This will be my fourth commentary of the week, which I think may be a record. However, given the extraordinary price action, an excessive quantity of verbiage has sadly been necessary. And please remember, my number one rule is to only write when there is something...
A wise friend and excellent hedge fund manager from DC sent me following fabulous line for a commentary title: "Today's exercise: If spoo > x, then liftoff. Solve for x". It was a play on a commentary I wrote back in June 2011 entitled "Today's exercise: If spoo...
I have built and estimated a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) economic model of the global economy which can fully explain the recent market crash dynamics. My model incorporates sticky wages/prices, a monetary sector built around cash in advance...
This was always going to be a difficult year in U.S. markets. Turning the interest rate cycle without a market hick-up, after such an unprecedented and aggressive easing, would require near super human policy-making talent. In the end, I'm not sure anyone could have...
Given the price action I thought it prudent to write something again during my attempted holiday. Below are 2 paragraphs from last week's note on the Chinese devaluation. Please read them again as I believe they accurately predict this "temporary" digression towards...
I had hoped for some mind-clearing relaxation in August, but the PBOC decided to turn these calm holiday markets into a confused liquidity starved tsunami. And as I did promise to write from my holiday if anything important happened, I feel obliged to make a few...
August is a wonderful month for reflection. For me it is always a time with very few client meetings, conferences or speaking engagements. And most importantly, it offers a welcome break from airports, hotels, taxis and suitcases. Of course the markets do not always...
Earlier this week I wrote a note entitled "What do deflationists and the Fed staff have in common?". And as usual I got some very thoughtful client responses. The one reprinted below comes from a very bright gentleman in Italy. He got me thinking about the post 1951...
Earlier this week I wrote a note entitled "What do deflationists and the Fed staff have in common?". And as usual I got some very thoughtful client responses. The one reprinted below comes from a very bright gentleman in Italy. He got me thinking about the post 1951 commodity price crash experience of higher yields […]
