Although I think the debate on a Sep, Oct or Dec liftoff could be one of the most banal in Fed watching history, I understand that many investors feel differently. There are plenty of folks who have no choice but to keep an allocation to US assets - and hence a month...
This will be my fourth commentary of the week, which I think may be a record. However, given the extraordinary price action, an excessive quantity of verbiage has sadly been necessary. And please remember, my number one rule is to only write when there is something...
A wise friend and excellent hedge fund manager from DC sent me following fabulous line for a commentary title: "Today's exercise: If spoo > x, then liftoff. Solve for x". It was a play on a commentary I wrote back in June 2011 entitled "Today's exercise: If spoo...
I have built and estimated a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) economic model of the global economy which can fully explain the recent market crash dynamics. My model incorporates sticky wages/prices, a monetary sector built around cash in advance...
This was always going to be a difficult year in U.S. markets. Turning the interest rate cycle without a market hick-up, after such an unprecedented and aggressive easing, would require near super human policy-making talent. In the end, I'm not sure anyone could have...
Given the price action I thought it prudent to write something again during my attempted holiday. Below are 2 paragraphs from last week's note on the Chinese devaluation. Please read them again as I believe they accurately predict this "temporary" digression towards...
I had hoped for some mind-clearing relaxation in August, but the PBOC decided to turn these calm holiday markets into a confused liquidity starved tsunami. And as I did promise to write from my holiday if anything important happened, I feel obliged to make a few...
August is a wonderful month for reflection. For me it is always a time with very few client meetings, conferences or speaking engagements. And most importantly, it offers a welcome break from airports, hotels, taxis and suitcases. Of course the markets do not always...
Earlier this week I wrote a note entitled "What do deflationists and the Fed staff have in common?". And as usual I got some very thoughtful client responses. The one reprinted below comes from a very bright gentleman in Italy. He got me thinking about the post 1951...
Last week's note entitled "European bailouts, gold crashes, rate tantrums" generated a fair amount of controversy. Many folks pointed out that the recent abrupt drop in neary all major commodity prices meant that the current situation was not, as I suggested, readily...
Last week's note entitled "European bailouts, gold crashes, rate tantrums" generated a fair amount of controversy. Many folks pointed out that the recent abrupt drop in neary all major commodity prices meant that the current situation was not, as I suggested, readily comparable to the Spring of 2013. These folks went on to suggest that […]
