It has been about 2 months since the great market meltdown of 2015 began! The Chinese devaluation kicked things off in late August, sending spoos from about 2100 to the mid 1800s in a heartbeat. Then, just as the market became somewhat comfortable with idea that...
Friday's employment report was a bit weak relative to the most recent trends. Only 142k new jobs were created, there were negative revisions to the last few months, wage growth slowed and hours worked fell. But hidden in the moderate softness was one very bright spot...
By now most of you have probably watched Carl Icahn's infomercial for the coming apocalypse in high yield debt markets. If not just click here - http://carlicahn.com - it's well worth the time. And after viewing his vituperation of low interest rates, and more...
Over the last year we have consistently argued that the policy reaction for the FOMC was becoming more difficult to estimate. During the excess-slack-filled recovery phase of our business cycle (2009-2014), there was never any doubt about what they would do - print a...
Thus far the market has taken Janet's about face on the policy outlook from last Thursday as an indication that she believes the U.S. economy is in, or is heading towards, a dark place. Her assessment seemed to channel an almost Summeresque warning that EM weakness...
Overall Janet delivered a fantastic speech – http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/yellen20150924a.htm. She reiterated many times that QE has been a success. She clearly stated that most of the Committee, including her, expect to raise rates by the end of...
Back at the end of Ben's term as Chairman he sat down for a little fireside chat at the Brookings Institution. And during the discussion he was asked about his belief in the efficacy of QE. His response, which elicited a huge round of laughter, was "well, QE works in...
A parade of very bright academics, policy makers and market practitioners have warned the FOMC not to raise rates tomorrow. For example, our professorial friends Larry Summers and Ken Rogoff have argued quite vehemently that removing accommodation at this point risks...
Here are the opening lines from that 1976 classic by Thin Lizzy "The Boys are Back in Town": Guess who just got back today Them wild-eyed boys that had been away Haven't changed that much to say But man, I still think them cats are crazy It's two days into the post...
From 2010-2014 we at Jefferies argued quite strongly that the QE policies from the FOMC would work to reflate US risk asset markets, in particular US stocks. And to be sure, during that 5 year period we encountered our fair share of QE haters. Early on, the hater view...
From 2010-2014 we at Jefferies argued quite strongly that the QE policies from the FOMC would work to reflate US risk asset markets, in particular US stocks. And to be sure, during that 5 year period we encountered our fair share of QE haters. Early on, the hater view was centered upon a Japanese style […]
