CNBC Appearance (01-Feb-2023)

A discussion of the FOMC meeting. Watch replay here. You are unauthorized to view this page. Username or E-mail Password Remember Me     Forgot...

CNBC Appearance (26-Jan-2023)

A discussion of the outlook for the fed, interest rates and opportunities in the US credit markets. Watch replay here. You are unauthorized to view this...

There are NOT 36pbs of rate cuts priced in by year end

Before discussing today’s topic, I want to clarify a couple things on my “got junk?” trade recommendation for 2023. First of all, I want to reiterate that I do not see a compelling case for spoos to move out of the range we have been in since last June. That was my...

CNBC Appearance (17-Jan-2023)

A discussion of equity markets, credit markets and the outlook for the Fed in 2023. Watch replay here. You are unauthorized to view this...

Got Junk?

I'm not sure how it happened, but in what feels like the blink of an eye, I am beginning my 14th year of writing on the global macroeconomic outlook here at Jefferies. Over these years, clients from all walks of financial market life have universally come around to...

CNBC Appearance (28-Dec-2022)

A discussion of inflation, FOMC rates hikes and the outlook for financial markets in 2023. Watch replay here. You are unauthorized to view this...

Peak Volcker

In my last note back on Nov 29th, prior to Jay's Brookings speech and the December FOMC meeting, I penned the following: Looking ahead, I want to recommend ... just riding an outright long spoo position for the time being. I know Jay is likely to be hawkish…, but...

CNBC Appearance (14-Dec-2022)

A discussion of the FOMC meeting and Powell's press conference. Watch replay here. You are unauthorized to view this...

Regulated crypto is far scarier than unregulated crypto

Before I start my first-ever crypto commentary, a couple of housekeeping notes are in order. First, on Dec 7th in New York City I will be hosting a fireside chat with Niall Ferguson. As many readers will remember, Niall and I held a virtual fireside chat in Q1 2022...

Opportunistic Disinflation

Back on 1-Nov-22, just before the last FOMC meeting, I penned the following lines at the end of a note entitled "The Pivot and Financial Instability”: ...we are likely coming in toward the final stages of this tightening move. After this week, there will have been 400...
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