CNBC Appearance (04-May-2022)

A discussion of the FOMC rate decision, the market reaction, and the outlook for Fed policy to fight inflation going forward. Watch replay here. You are unauthorized to view this...

Heartbreaker, your time has come

I made a conscious decision to lie low during the month of April, writing only one commentary. I felt that during the first quarter of 2022 I had written more than enough on the idea that excessive Fed hawkishness would lead to stresses for risk assets. And there was...

The inflation killing fields

The Q1 2022 CPI prints are now in the books; and for the Fed, they leave an ugly mark on an otherwise stellar 40-year record of inflation slaying. The numbers for the last three months accelerated aggressively, coming in at 0.6%, 0.8%, and a whopping 1.2%,...

CNBC Appearance (30-Mar-2022)

A discussion of the financial market outlook in the wake of Fed policy changes. Watch replay here. You are unauthorized to view this...

CNBC Appearance (23-Mar-2022)

A discussion of Powell's press conference after the FOMC meeting. Watch replay here. You are unauthorized to view this...

A warm market welcome for Jay’s Volckeresque move

Before making a few observations about the hawkish FOMC liftoff this week, let me say a few words on Tuesday's sobering Zoom conversation with Niall Ferguson. For those who were not able to tune in, you can get the link by request from your salesperson. First and...

A macro zoom with special guest Niall Ferguson

Geopolitical risks have added significant complications to an already strained macro-economic outlook for 2022. In order to better understand how these risks will evolve, I will be hosting a fireside chat via zoom with Niall Ferguson. The event will take place Tuesday...

Armchair experts in epidemiology pivot to polemology

In March 2020, as the reality of COVID began to sink into financial markets, I began writing quite actively on the potential for Fed action. These were some of my commentary titles from back then: March 1: “Go Early, Go Big” March 23: “The Fed and Treasury are not...

Some pre-weekend thoughts

Below are a few market thoughts, in no particular order, as we head into another weekend of heightened geopolitical uncertainty: When Russia defaulted in 1998 and its economy ground to a halt, USDRUB went from 6 to 21 in 1 month. And over the following 3 years the RUB...
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