Last week, the BEA released its first estimate of real GDP for Q1 2021 at $19.09 trillion. In order to generate this level of GDP, the economy utilized an average of 143.35 million total non-farm workers throughout the quarter. Now if we look back one year ago,...
So far, my spoos & J’s trade for 2021 is up over 10%, annualizing at just around 40%. In addition, my decision to steer clear of any form of traditional risk parity rate-style hedge for spoos and to opt instead for Janet and Jay (aka the J’s) looks to have been a...
Not a day goes by without a note coming through my inbox that contains a catchphrase like “in the weeds” or “under the hood” or “deep dive” or “market internals.” Now, to be sure, going for a deep dive in the weeds in order to study those market internals under the...
A discussion of the FOMC meeting and inflation expectations on 17 March 2021. Watch video replay here. Subscribe today to read all of David's Recent...
In the coming weeks, possibly even at this week’s FOMC meeting, the Fed is likely to indicate that it is not renewing the changes it made last year to the supplementary leverage ratio (SLR) rule for big bank holding companies (BBHCs). The original decision had...
The single most famous quote by Milton Friedman is almost certainly “Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.” And while we have all come to accept that there are many other cyclical and structural factors besides monetary policy affecting inflation,...
A discussion on the recent volatility in Treasury yields and how that will likely feed back into the risk asset, currency, and commodity markets. Watch video replay here. Subscribe today to read all of David's Recent...
Today I want to make the case that higher expected future short-term interest rates will actually be quite supportive for risk asset markets. Of course, this notion runs counter to standard textbook stock/bond relative valuation arguments. Typically, higher future...
Everywhere one turns these days, somebody is using a “roaring 20s” metaphor. From CEOs to market pundits to Reddit short squeezers, the storylines are all the same. Pent-up demand, like we saw following the 1918–1920 pandemic, will very shortly kick off in the 2020s....
US monetary policy is set to change dramatically as the economic team for the new administration, led by Janet, shapes a new leadership team at the Federal Reserve Board. Randy’s vice chair is up in October 2021; Jay’s chair finishes in January 2022; and Rich’s vice...
