Over the last three weeks, the odds of a Trump victory have jumped markedly. Biden's debate performance, Trump's judicial wins, and the awful events in Bethel Park last Saturday have all contributed to the shift. And while other macro forces such as softer inflation...
Long Streetsmarts, Short Booksmarts: 10-Jan-2017 Over the last two months my market discussions with clients and colleagues have centered exclusively on the expectations for Trump economic policies – specifically fiscal policy, regulatory policy, immigration policy,...
Today, I would like to address a topic that many pundits have deemed a negative risk factor for overall equity market performance: the issue of concentration. For the record, I discussed this topic last week in a CNBC segment, which you can access here. In a nutshell,...
With less than 140 days to go until the US Presidential election, the policy differences between Trump and Biden are becoming a key focus for financial markets. Looking back to 2016, I wrote a handful of notes on the likely market impact from Trump vs. Clinton policy...
The critical message from Wednesday’s FOMC meeting was not a hawkish one. Yes, the committee changed their year end-2024 rate cut projection from 75bps to 25bps. And as a consequence, the knee-jerk pundit reaction was to deem the postponement in cuts as hawkish. But...
As promised, I will always start out the new month with a blast from the past. This piece below from 2019 might be my favorite on the relative importance of monetary vs fiscal policy. Enjoy!!! $1.9 trillion of crowding out, pork, and redistribution - January 20, 2019...
Earlier this week, I attended the annual Atlanta Fed Financial Markets Conference, something I have been doing regularly for over a decade. This year, there were four reserve bank presidents and two board members in attendance, along with plenty of current and past...
A version of this commentary will appear on the CNBC Pro website today: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/08/david-zervos-blame-traders-living-in-rate-cut-la-la-land-not-the-fed-for-recent-market-turbulence.html In the last 2 months of 2023, the market added an additional...
Before providing a few comments on the results of today's FOMC meeting, I wanted to take care of two unrelated issues. First up, a quick logistical update. Below is list of my upcoming speaking events in May and June. If you would like to participate in, or check...
Before addressing some key macro issues that have dominated my recent discussions with clients, let me say a word about geopolitics. There are plenty of financial market professionals who fancy themselves armchair polemologists. These folks try desperately to...
Before addressing some key macro issues that have dominated my recent discussions with clients, let me say a word about geopolitics. There are plenty of financial market professionals who fancy themselves armchair polemologists. These folks try desperately to translate their amateur geopolitical views back into a set of short-term market predictions. And almost always, they […]
