In a 2007 CNBC interview, anchor Maria Bartiromo asked then-retired Fed Chair Alan Greenspan to explain the concept of "Fedspeak." His answer was as follows: "It's a… a language of purposeful obfuscation to avoid certain questions coming up, which you know you can't...
I don't typically like using charts in my market commentaries. I have always been more of a words over pictures kinda guy. But occasionally I break with standard protocol, especially when something worthy catches my eye. And to be sure, the following two charts meet...
I was thinking of titling today’s missive “It just ain’t that bad – part 3,” but then I thought that a little too banal. The bottom line, though, is that this past week’s inflation data certainly adds to a theme of overall positivity. A 3.6% unemployment rate combined...
As the economic data continue to indicate that “it just ain’t that bad,” I want to remind readers of our single most important macro insight so far in 2023. Back on 13-Feb, when December fed fund futures were still projecting a rate below 5%, I penned a note entitled...
The message from the FOMC dot plot last week was straightforward — it just ain’t that bad. The recession that was forecast for the second half of the year has been taken out. The unemployment rate, which had been forecast to rise to 4.5% by year end, is now heading...
Here are three market facts: The dollar is strong. Commodities are weak. Treasury term premiums are low. Now, to be sure, all these facts are indicative of strength in overall Fed inflation-fighting credibility. And if we add to this list that 1yr and 10yr inflation...
I know that a lot of folks have been hunkered down in their respective “war rooms” pretending that this debt ceiling story has been, or will soon become, a major driver of market price action. Well, spoiler alert, there is no fundamental/macro story here. This is a...
My last market commentary, "Armageddon Fail," was published way back on April 12th. And to be completely honest, I haven't had much new to say on the macro front since then. More importantly, though, the financial markets haven't had much new to say either. For six...
On that fateful Sunday evening, just one month ago, when the Fed announced its new 13(3) funding facilities in order to stem the fallout from the SIVB and SBNY failures, I ended my note to clients with the following paragraph: In the near term, the road will surely be...
As promised, here are a few quick thoughts on the Fed balance sheet release from earlier this afternoon. The bottom line is that expansion was a much more modest ~$100b relative to last week's ~$300b. More importantly though, the net change in the combination of...
As promised, here are a few quick thoughts on the Fed balance sheet release from earlier this afternoon. The bottom line is that expansion was a much more modest ~$100b relative to last week's ~$300b. More importantly though, the net change in the combination of discount window borrowing and the usage of the new BTFP was […]
