Before kicking off today’s missive I want to remind those in the NYC area about our “Macro & Margaritas” event at 5pm on Tuesday, Oct 8th at one of my favorite Mexican spots — Tacombi Flatiron. Please reach out to your Jefferies salesperson if you would like to enjoy...
Given yesterday's note, I thought this would be a good piece to bring back from the vault for the month of October. _________________ A balance sheet above neutral creates a higher neutral real interest rate (4-Oct-23) Today I’m going to continue focusing on the Fed...
Since the beginning of 2023, I have argued that monetary policy was never as restrictive as interest rate levels might suggest. Specifically, in the brave new post-GFC world of QE, the Fed balance sheet affects the overall stance of monetary policy long after...
Wednesday's FOMC was highly unusual. A 50bps cut, an optimistic economic outlook, and hawkish forward guidance have never combined at an FOMC meeting that I can recall. Historically, 50 was always a bazooka, reserved for highly stressful times when recession risks...
On Monday morning at 9am EST I am going to host a zoom call focused on the speed with which the Fed is likely to return to a neutral policy stance. A quickened pace post the election is likely to have important implications for equity, currency, credit, and commodity...
I thought this very concise commentary below from over 13 years ago would be a nice way to kick off September. The Fed put structure has been a critical feature in my writing since first starting at Jefferies nearly 15 years ago. The put has come a long way, through...
As a good Greek, I tried my best to disengage from work during the month of August and rest up before hitting the road on an unusually aggressive fall travel schedule. That said, in the early part of the month, I felt obliged to write a quick note from the beaches of...
The Fed, the BoJ, payrolls, the US presidential election race, tech earnings, and the escalation in the Middle East have all conspired to create some heavy derisking. Volatility was low, and complacency was high heading into the mid-July all-time highs for spoos. And...
Before launching into today's missive, I want to highlight an upcoming conference call which will take place on Thursday, August 1st. In virtually every meeting with clients over the last few months, the dominant focus has been the US Presidential election. Sure,...
Over the last three weeks, the odds of a Trump victory have jumped markedly. Biden's debate performance, Trump's judicial wins, and the awful events in Bethel Park last Saturday have all contributed to the shift. And while other macro forces such as softer inflation...
Over the last three weeks, the odds of a Trump victory have jumped markedly. Biden's debate performance, Trump's judicial wins, and the awful events in Bethel Park last Saturday have all contributed to the shift. And while other macro forces such as softer inflation and unemployment data have surely been at work, the knee-jerk market […]
