There have been a few days of calm since the largest weekly rise for US long-term interest rates in over 40 years. To see such a move, along with a sharp weakening in the dollar, during a period of equity and credit market stress, is extraordinarily unusual. For...
On September 22,1985 the Plaza Accord went into effect to stem the deep trade imbalances existing between the US, Japan, and Western Europe. Once again, beginning a week ago Thursday, the US made initial moves to rebalance an unlevel global trade playing field. This...
Please join Jefferies Chief Market Strategist, David Zervos, for a discussion on how Trump’s attack on mercantilist trade policies will likely impact global financial markets and geopolitics. By bringing over 70 countries to the table to rebalance a broken global...
I generally draft a few bullet points for my TV hits before going on air. Given all the market madness, I thought I would share them with readers this morning so as to give everyone a better idea of where my head is after the last 3 trading sessions. ______ Notes for...
Here is a simplistic version of the game played every day in the global trade arena. Each country chooses to either be cooperative (C) or uncooperative (U). Below are some illustrative payouts: C:C -> $100:$100 C:U -> $30:$130 U:C -> $130:$30 U:U ->...
A little more than a week has passed since Jay decided to slip on a red jersey and distance himself from that politically charged 50bps rate cut just before the election. His dovish messaging was crystal clear. And the near complete shutdown of Treasury QT put dovish...
Before proposing a 12-step recovery journey for countries struggling with fiscal policy addiction issues, I have two housekeeping issues and a quick FOMC thought to share: I want to apologize for the technical problems with last Thursday's macro zoom. It was...
Impending cuts in both federal spending and employment have added uncertainty to the economic outlook. While gains in government efficiency are generally seen as beneficial, if the transition takes place too quickly, there may be some unpleasant side effects from a...
The term reprivatization has entered into Trump policy lexicon courtesy of our new Treasury Secretary. To be sure, it is an excellent choice of vocabulary when describing the process of moving resources out of a less efficient, kakistocratic public sector into a more...
The mainstream economics profession, through their Phillips Curve based Keynesian models, brought you the failed forecasts of recession and sharply higher unemployment in 2023/24. They also brought you the flawed stagflationary trade policy predictions during Trump...
The mainstream economics profession, through their Phillips Curve based Keynesian models, brought you the failed forecasts of recession and sharply higher unemployment in 2023/24. They also brought you the flawed stagflationary trade policy predictions during Trump 1.0. And yet somehow today, many investors are following these same folks as they push a simple repeat of […]
