Given the price action I thought it prudent to write something again during my attempted holiday. Below are 2 paragraphs from last week's note on the Chinese devaluation. Please read them again as I believe they accurately predict this "temporary" digression towards...
I had hoped for some mind-clearing relaxation in August, but the PBOC decided to turn these calm holiday markets into a confused liquidity starved tsunami. And as I did promise to write from my holiday if anything important happened, I feel obliged to make a few...
August is a wonderful month for reflection. For me it is always a time with very few client meetings, conferences or speaking engagements. And most importantly, it offers a welcome break from airports, hotels, taxis and suitcases. Of course the markets do not always...
Earlier this week I wrote a note entitled "What do deflationists and the Fed staff have in common?". And as usual I got some very thoughtful client responses. The one reprinted below comes from a very bright gentleman in Italy. He got me thinking about the post 1951...
Last week's note entitled "European bailouts, gold crashes, rate tantrums" generated a fair amount of controversy. Many folks pointed out that the recent abrupt drop in neary all major commodity prices meant that the current situation was not, as I suggested, readily...
While this may sound strange, I believe European risk assets would have ended at higher levels last week had Greece left the Eurozone. Of course there would have been an ugly initial dip, but the market would have quickly realized that an exit (or timeout) was NOT...
While this may sound strange, I believe European risk assets would have ended at higher levels last week had Greece left the Eurozone. Of course there would have been an ugly initial dip, but the market would have quickly realized that an exit (or timeout) was NOT another Lehman event. And the ECB would have […]
