Over the last year we have consistently argued that the policy reaction for the FOMC was becoming more difficult to estimate. During the excess-slack-filled recovery phase of our business cycle (2009-2014), there was never any doubt about what they would do - print a...
Thus far the market has taken Janet's about face on the policy outlook from last Thursday as an indication that she believes the U.S. economy is in, or is heading towards, a dark place. Her assessment seemed to channel an almost Summeresque warning that EM weakness...
Overall Janet delivered a fantastic speech – http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/yellen20150924a.htm. She reiterated many times that QE has been a success. She clearly stated that most of the Committee, including her, expect to raise rates by the end of...
Back at the end of Ben's term as Chairman he sat down for a little fireside chat at the Brookings Institution. And during the discussion he was asked about his belief in the efficacy of QE. His response, which elicited a huge round of laughter, was "well, QE works in...
A parade of very bright academics, policy makers and market practitioners have warned the FOMC not to raise rates tomorrow. For example, our professorial friends Larry Summers and Ken Rogoff have argued quite vehemently that removing accommodation at this point risks...
Here are the opening lines from that 1976 classic by Thin Lizzy "The Boys are Back in Town": Guess who just got back today Them wild-eyed boys that had been away Haven't changed that much to say But man, I still think them cats are crazy It's two days into the post...
Here are the opening lines from that 1976 classic by Thin Lizzy "The Boys are Back in Town": Guess who just got back today Them wild-eyed boys that had been away Haven't changed that much to say But man, I still think them cats are crazy It's two days into the post summer vacation trading […]
