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Closer to neutral, less restrictive, and more dovish – June 14, 2024

The critical message from Wednesday’s FOMC meeting was not a hawkish one. Yes, the committee changed their year end-2024 rate cut projection from 75bps to 25bps. And as a consequence, the knee-jerk pundit reaction was to deem the postponement in cuts as hawkish. But...

From the vault – June 3, 2024

As promised, I will always start out the new month with a blast from the past. This piece below from 2019 might be my favorite on the relative importance of monetary vs fiscal policy. Enjoy!!! $1.9 trillion of crowding out, pork, and redistribution - January 20, 2019...

Well-Positioned and Patient – May 24, 2024

Earlier this week, I attended the annual Atlanta Fed Financial Markets Conference, something I have been doing regularly for over a decade. This year, there were four reserve bank presidents and two board members in attendance, along with plenty of current and past...

Consensonomics gets an ‘F’ – May 8, 2024

A version of this commentary will appear on the CNBC Pro website today: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/08/david-zervos-blame-traders-living-in-rate-cut-la-la-land-not-the-fed-for-recent-market-turbulence.html In the last 2 months of 2023, the market added an additional...

FOMC thoughts, upcoming events, and the vault

Before providing a few comments on the results of today's FOMC meeting, I wanted to take care of two unrelated issues. First up, a quick logistical update. Below is list of my upcoming speaking events in May and June. If you would like to participate in, or check...

Fiscal Policy, Inflation, Treasury Yields, and Gold

Before addressing some key macro issues that have dominated my recent discussions with clients, let me say a word about geopolitics. There are plenty of financial market professionals who fancy themselves armchair polemologists. These folks try desperately to...
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