To start 2025, I want to harken back to Q2 2013, when both spoos and gold were trading around 1500. It was a time when folks were still hurting from the GFC, and plenty of skeptics still thought the US was heading for a Japanese- or Zimbabwean-style economic outcome....
Prior to the election, I wrote a few notes suggesting that we are headed towards a neutral monetary policy stance that is similar to that which prevailed at the end of 2019, before all the craziness of COVID. Specifically, I argued that the eventual equilibrium...
This month's "From the Vault" is a little more recent than usual, but I thought it would be an enjoyable reprint before year end. We don't need rate cuts to get risk assets to go higher - April 10, 2024. The CNBC video below from one month ago, after the hotter CPI...
It’s been three weeks since Trump's win, and so far spoos have rallied around 3.5%, while EURUSD has depreciated around 3.5%. I suspect most macro traders would have predicted moves exactly like these in the equity and currency markets, even if 17 Nobel laureates were...
Before kicking off today’s missive I want to remind those in the NYC area about our “Macro & Margaritas” event at 5pm on Tuesday, Oct 8th at one of my favorite Mexican spots — Tacombi Flatiron. Please reach out to your Jefferies salesperson if you would like to enjoy...
Given yesterday's note, I thought this would be a good piece to bring back from the vault for the month of October. _________________ A balance sheet above neutral creates a higher neutral real interest rate (4-Oct-23) Today I’m going to continue focusing on the Fed...
Given yesterday's note, I thought this would be a good piece to bring back from the vault for the month of October. _________________ A balance sheet above neutral creates a higher neutral real interest rate (4-Oct-23) Today I’m going to continue focusing on the Fed balance sheet, picking up where I left off on Sept. […]
