My last market commentary, "Armageddon Fail," was published way back on April 12th. And to be completely honest, I haven't had much new to say on the macro front since then. More importantly, though, the financial markets haven't had much new to say either. For six...
On that fateful Sunday evening, just one month ago, when the Fed announced its new 13(3) funding facilities in order to stem the fallout from the SIVB and SBNY failures, I ended my note to clients with the following paragraph: In the near term, the road will surely be...
As promised, here are a few quick thoughts on the Fed balance sheet release from earlier this afternoon. The bottom line is that expansion was a much more modest ~$100b relative to last week's ~$300b. More importantly though, the net change in the combination of...
It's been a wild couple of weeks. The second and third largest bank failures in US history have come and gone. The first-ever G-SIB was fully resolved without a hitch. The Fed's balance sheet swelled by over $300B in a matter of just a few days. And the FOMC continued...
Given that the weekly balance sheet report from the Fed just came out this evening showing a whopping ~$300b EXPANSION, I thought it would be useful to bring back a piece I wrote just over four months ago. The framework outlined in this piece best describes how I...
Given that the weekly balance sheet report from the Fed just came out this evening showing a whopping ~$300b EXPANSION, I thought it would be useful to bring back a piece I wrote just over four months ago. The framework outlined in this piece best describes how I currently see the Fed's reaction function evolving […]
