Stagnant stresses

As promised, here are a few quick thoughts on the Fed balance sheet release from earlier this afternoon. The bottom line is that expansion was a much more modest ~$100b relative to last week's ~$300b. More importantly though, the net change in the combination of...

Is rate vol a canary in the coal mine?

It's been a wild couple of weeks. The second and third largest bank failures in US history have come and gone. The first-ever G-SIB was fully resolved without a hitch. The Fed's balance sheet swelled by over $300B in a matter of just a few days. And the FOMC continued...

The Pivot and Financial Instability Redux

Given that the weekly balance sheet report from the Fed just came out this evening showing a whopping ~$300b EXPANSION, I thought it would be useful to bring back a piece I wrote just over four months ago. The framework outlined in this piece best describes how I...
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