Jay’s Volcker moment

“For now, we have a very easy policy reaction function to predict. This is a hawkish Fed that is unlikely to be backstopping financial markets anytime soon. Simple as that” (from my note on May 26th entitled “Central Bank Vigilantes”). While many have focused on the...

Central Bank Vigilantes

As a prelude to today's missive, I want to first provide a little background on my motivation for writing this piece. Back in the early days of my tenure at Jefferies, between 2010–2015, I spent an enormous amount of time arguing that QE would work. And to be sure,...

CNBC Appearance (04-May-2022)

A discussion of the FOMC rate decision, the market reaction, and the outlook for Fed policy to fight inflation going forward. Watch replay here. You are unauthorized to view this...

Heartbreaker, your time has come

I made a conscious decision to lie low during the month of April, writing only one commentary. I felt that during the first quarter of 2022 I had written more than enough on the idea that excessive Fed hawkishness would lead to stresses for risk assets. And there was...
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