It’s been three weeks since Trump's win, and so far spoos have rallied around 3.5%, while EURUSD has depreciated around 3.5%. I suspect most macro traders would have predicted moves exactly like these in the equity and currency markets, even if 17 Nobel laureates were...
Before kicking off today’s missive I want to remind those in the NYC area about our “Macro & Margaritas” event at 5pm on Tuesday, Oct 8th at one of my favorite Mexican spots — Tacombi Flatiron. Please reach out to your Jefferies salesperson if you would like to enjoy...
Given yesterday's note, I thought this would be a good piece to bring back from the vault for the month of October. _________________ A balance sheet above neutral creates a higher neutral real interest rate (4-Oct-23) Today I’m going to continue focusing on the Fed...
Since the beginning of 2023, I have argued that monetary policy was never as restrictive as interest rate levels might suggest. Specifically, in the brave new post-GFC world of QE, the Fed balance sheet affects the overall stance of monetary policy long after...
Wednesday's FOMC was highly unusual. A 50bps cut, an optimistic economic outlook, and hawkish forward guidance have never combined at an FOMC meeting that I can recall. Historically, 50 was always a bazooka, reserved for highly stressful times when recession risks...
Wednesday's FOMC was highly unusual. A 50bps cut, an optimistic economic outlook, and hawkish forward guidance have never combined at an FOMC meeting that I can recall. Historically, 50 was always a bazooka, reserved for highly stressful times when recession risks metrics were flashing red and/or financial markets were in the process of dislocating. Clearly, […]
