Before kicking off today’s missive I want to remind those in the NYC area about our “Macro & Margaritas” event at 5pm on Tuesday, Oct 8th at one of my favorite Mexican spots — Tacombi Flatiron. Please reach out to your Jefferies salesperson if you would like to enjoy...
Given yesterday's note, I thought this would be a good piece to bring back from the vault for the month of October. _________________ A balance sheet above neutral creates a higher neutral real interest rate (4-Oct-23) Today I’m going to continue focusing on the Fed...
Since the beginning of 2023, I have argued that monetary policy was never as restrictive as interest rate levels might suggest. Specifically, in the brave new post-GFC world of QE, the Fed balance sheet affects the overall stance of monetary policy long after...
Wednesday's FOMC was highly unusual. A 50bps cut, an optimistic economic outlook, and hawkish forward guidance have never combined at an FOMC meeting that I can recall. Historically, 50 was always a bazooka, reserved for highly stressful times when recession risks...
On Monday morning at 9am EST I am going to host a zoom call focused on the speed with which the Fed is likely to return to a neutral policy stance. A quickened pace post the election is likely to have important implications for equity, currency, credit, and commodity...
On Monday morning at 9am EST I am going to host a zoom call focused on the speed with which the Fed is likely to return to a neutral policy stance. A quickened pace post the election is likely to have important implications for equity, currency, credit, and commodity markets. There will be a 15-minute […]
