Last week provided yet another example of why spoos and blues is such a powerful trading strategy. This past Thursday, between 11am and 11:30am, spoos air-pocketed 1.6% on what was later confirmed to be an incorrect ABC news story. Now that might not sound like a...
Over the last week or so a number clients requested both clarification and elaboration on my most recent note, “Fiscal Stimulus: Another Force for Disinflation.”. Generally speaking, folks wanted more precision on the impact of corporate tax reform on wage rates,...
Earlier this month the Fed began to cap the quantity of maturing proceeds they regularly reinvest back into the Treasury and agency MBS markets. This marked a crucial turning point for the Fed balance sheet, as it kicked off the first meaningful contraction of the...
The Powell trial ballon went out last week and risk markets applauded. This week Taylor got a nudge into the center ring, and traders are all choking on their breakfast sandwiches. Most market folks, myself included, have leaned toward the idea that the Trump Fed...
I will keep this note very brief post the CPI. This year has been characterized by consistently strong employment data and weak inflation data. And today's soft inflation number combined with last week's strong employment print adds further credence to the idea that...
I will keep this note very brief post the CPI. This year has been characterized by consistently strong employment data and weak inflation data. And today's soft inflation number combined with last week's strong employment print adds further credence to the idea that an unwind of Secular Stagulation is very much upon us. Now those […]
