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Reckless Supply Stories

Ten-year US Treasury yields have backed up about 50bps to start the year. And to be sure, there exists no topic more discussed in financial markets than what’s behind this rate move. The two most common explanations I hear from clients and colleagues are: Higher...

A Minsky Millisecond

So much for the haters’ time in the sunshine. Those all too familiar dark clouds came through last week to dump plenty of rain on the “it’s all going to go horribly wrong” parade. By Friday this camp must have been sitting at their desks with faces-in-palms wondering...

The Powell Pout

Last week created some handsome dividends for the haters!! If you have been beating the drum about instability from short volatility positions, or dangers associated with crowded passive investment strategies, or risks of an outsized inflation shock, it really doesn’t...

Training Day II: Starring Jay Powell

There are some great movies based on catastrophic first days on the job: Men in Black, The Devil Wears Prada, and Inception, just to name a few. But for me the best has to be Training Day, where Ethan Hawke plays Jake Hoyt, a rookie policeman who pretty much has the...

Mapping Out the Strike Parameters for the Powell Put

Last Friday’s price action was both aggressive and unusual. Spoos rinsed 65 points while cash 10s and blues sold off 6bps in the wake of strong employment and wage data. Generally, large-scale risk asset sell-offs have been accompanied by sharp DROPS in rates during...
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