As a follow up to my short note on Friday - "The single most important decision in the history of EMU" - I want to look at the contagion, fallout and global central bank policy responses in the event that the Greeks are shut out of Target2 and thus forced to exit EMU....
Eurosystem claims directly on the Greek banking system are some 130b Euros (open market operation repos, LTROs and ELA lending). These claims are backed by a variety of highly suspect Greek collateral that is all held in custody at the BoG. For ELA borrowing (about...
The German election results in Baden Wurttemberg, the Der Speigel turnaround, and the increasingly supportive comments from nearly every European official on a Greek exit have markets on edge. People are throwing around numbers like 500b in realized losses if (when)...
So this past week the French and the Greeks have made strong political moves towards the anti-austerity left. The Germans have rejected the center right in local elections. And the anti-austerity movement has won the day in Italian regional elections. As discussed in...
Spoos are up 20+ pts from the Sunday evening lows, and they are now above Friday’s close. The Euro is still down from Friday, but Estoxx are zooming - up 40pts from Friday and up nearly 80pts from the morning open. Markets seem to be embracing a renewed optimism for...
Spoos are up 20+ pts from the Sunday evening lows, and they are now above Friday’s close. The Euro is still down from Friday, but Estoxx are zooming - up 40pts from Friday and up nearly 80pts from the morning open. Markets seem to be embracing a renewed optimism for European stability. Or maybe they […]
