The RUB collapse earlier this week opened up many old wounds. Those who were on trading floors in the Fall of 1998 can easily recall the chaos which ensued post the Russia default. GKOs were in free fall, Russia 28s traded down to single digit dollar prices and the...
Spotting a bubble is never easy. And determining the root causes of a bubble is also never easy. It usually takes years of retrofitting to understand all of the dynamics behind bubble creation and bubble popping. Even today the debates rage on the sources of our US...
The US employment data were VERY strong. QE has worked its magic and the FOMC will be looking to remove accommodation sooner than the market thinks. As we have discussed before, the communications surrounding this accommodation removal will be complicated, and policy...
There was something quite sad about watching Mario speak today. The aggressiveness of his words just 2 weeks ago failed echo through today's discourse. And when he was asked about the inconsistency between his purported desire to "move without delay" and his the...
Here is my one paragraph, quick and dirty, abridged version of Mario's speech: "we cannot be complacent - we have to be very watchful that low inflation does not start percolating through the economy.....if inflation expectations fall, the real interest rate...
Here is my one paragraph, quick and dirty, abridged version of Mario's speech: "we cannot be complacent - we have to be very watchful that low inflation does not start percolating through the economy.....if inflation expectations fall, the real interest rate rises...in other words, any de-anchoring of expectations would cause an effective monetary tightening - […]
