2025 Commentaries
Is the TWD a guiding light for Plaza 2.0?
Away from all the “we are in recession now” folks choking on their breakfast sandwiches just after Friday’s strong payroll release, a sleepy currency pair was lurching onto the financial market center stage. The Taiwan dollar, which almost always trades in highly stable fashion against the USD, broke all norms and appreciated over 4% on […]
April recap: Unchanged in quiet professional trading
Like many folks, I did not expect the opening gambit in tariff negotiations to be so extreme. In retrospect, I suppose Trump’s time-tested “art of the deal” approach should have had us all more prepared for that posterboard back on April 2nd. After all, his style has always been to push towards the edges of […]
The Myth of Fed Independence
I can’t help but chuckle when I see so many spun-out financial market professionals opine on the cataclysmic risks associated with threats to Fed independence. The idea that “The Creature from Jekyll Island” has somehow not been contaminated by the swamp that surrounds it, is surely one of the most foolish narratives in market folklore. […]
The Treasury Twist
There have been a few days of calm since the largest weekly rise for US long-term interest rates in over 40 years. To see such a move, along with a sharp weakening in the dollar, during a period of equity and credit market stress, is extraordinarily unusual. For decades, we have all been conditioned to […]
What happens when the US rebalances the global trade landscape?
On September 22,1985 the Plaza Accord went into effect to stem the deep trade imbalances existing between the US, Japan, and Western Europe. Once again, beginning a week ago Thursday, the US made initial moves to rebalance an unlevel global trade playing field. This time, of course, the primary target is China. The game is […]
The end of mercantilism, not exceptionalism
Please join Jefferies Chief Market Strategist, David Zervos, for a discussion on how Trump’s attack on mercantilist trade policies will likely impact global financial markets and geopolitics. By bringing over 70 countries to the table to rebalance a broken global trading structure, while isolating China, Trump has set the stage for an epic battle between closed protectionist […]