2025 Commentaries
Don’t Fight the Treasury
There are many time-tested investment mantras: “Don’t put all your eggs in one basket”, “It’s a marathon not a sprint”, “Time in the market beats timing the market”, the list goes on!! But probably the single most repeated verse by investment professionals over the last few decades has been: “Don’t fight the Fed.” It has […]
RAMPing into 2026
Before discussing the dovish monetary policy announcement by the FOMC last week, I want to provide a few comments on the technologically challenged private credit/macro zoom I hosted last Tuesday with my good friend John Zito. To those who tuned in, please accept my sincere apologies for all the acoustic abnormalities during the first half […]
Make 2% Neutral Again
For the last couple quarters, estimates of US real GDP growth have been clocking in at an “exceptional” 4% annualized rate. Over that same time frame, however, the average monthly payroll gain has only been a meager 58k, while the unemployment rate has increased from 4.2% to 4.4%. This somewhat unusual trend of stronger growth […]
Labor Market Halitosis
The issue of heavy concentration in US equity market returns has been a false red flag for years. In fact, in a piece I penned back in July 2024 entitled “Not every company deserves a participation trophy”, I argued that the then omnipresent worries about market breadth were deeply misplaced. Borrowing some lines from that […]
Will the Treasury twist if the Chinese dump?
October 13, 2025 Before getting to today’s note, I want to highlight some of my upcoming speaking events below. Please contact your JEF salesperson if you are interested in attending. Oct 14: DC – EM Group cocktail event Oct 15: NYC – Groupwide dinner event Oct 16: NYC – Groupwide cocktail event Oct 21: Tokyo […]
You can't fatten up the pig the day before the fair
As I was on the driving range one morning getting ready for a Saturday golf game, our club pro was giving me a few tips on how to work a deeper cut shot. In the background, I heard the distinctively southern accent of one of my favorite members. He sauntered over with a smile and […]