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2024 Commentaries

Back to 2 and 20

Prior to the election, I wrote a few notes suggesting that we are headed towards a neutral monetary policy stance that is similar to that which prevailed at the end of 2019, before all the craziness of COVID. Specifically, I argued that the eventual equilibrium resting place for the combination of interest rates and balance […]

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From the Vault

This month's "From the Vault" is a little more recent than usual, but I thought it would be an enjoyable reprint before year end. We don't need rate cuts to get risk assets to go higher - April 10, 2024. The CNBC video below from one month ago, after the hotter CPI prints to start the year...

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Thankfully, Scott Bessent is no Bob Rubin

It’s been three weeks since Trump’s win, and so far spoos have rallied around 3.5%, while EURUSD has depreciated around 3.5%. I suspect most macro traders would have predicted moves exactly like these in the equity and currency markets, even if 17 Nobel laureates were forecasting global economic Armageddon. That said, the area where market […]

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Efficiency vs Equity; Trump vs Harris; Spoos vs Blues

Before kicking off today’s missive I want to remind those in the NYC area about our “Macro & Margaritas” event at 5pm on Tuesday, Oct 8th at one of my favorite Mexican spots — Tacombi Flatiron. Please reach out to your Jefferies salesperson if you would like to enjoy some Mexican fare and debate/discuss the […]

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From the vault: 4-Oct-2023

Given yesterday’s note, I thought this would be a good piece to bring back from the vault for the month of October. _________________ A balance sheet above neutral creates a higher neutral real interest rate (4-Oct-23) Today I’m going to continue focusing on the Fed balance sheet, picking up where I left off on Sept. […]

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Is the neutral rate headed back to 2%?

Since the beginning of 2023, I have argued that monetary policy was never as restrictive as interest rate levels might suggest. Specifically, in the brave new post-GFC world of QE, the Fed balance sheet affects the overall stance of monetary policy long after purchases cease. Recall that back in March 2022, just as rates were […]

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