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Recent Commentaries

Efficiency vs Equity; Trump vs Harris; Spoos vs Blues

Before kicking off today’s missive I want to remind those in the NYC area about our “Macro & Margaritas” event at 5pm on Tuesday, Oct 8th at one of my favorite Mexican spots — Tacombi Flatiron. Please reach out to your Jefferies salesperson if you would like to enjoy...

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From the vault: 4-Oct-2023

Given yesterday's note, I thought this would be a good piece to bring back from the vault for the month of October. _________________ A balance sheet above neutral creates a higher neutral real interest rate (4-Oct-23) Today I’m going to continue focusing on the Fed...

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Is the neutral rate headed back to 2%?

Since the beginning of 2023, I have argued that monetary policy was never as restrictive as interest rate levels might suggest. Specifically, in the brave new post-GFC world of QE, the Fed balance sheet affects the overall stance of monetary policy long after...

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