Recent Commentaries
From the vault: 22-May-2013
To start 2025, I want to harken back to Q2 2013, when both spoos and gold were trading around 1500. It was a time when folks were still hurting from the GFC, and plenty of skeptics still thought the US was heading for a Japanese- or Zimbabwean-style economic outcome....
Back to 2 and 20
Prior to the election, I wrote a few notes suggesting that we are headed towards a neutral monetary policy stance that is similar to that which prevailed at the end of 2019, before all the craziness of COVID. Specifically, I argued that the eventual equilibrium...
From the Vault
This month’s “From the Vault” is a little more recent than usual, but I thought it would be an enjoyable reprint before year end. We don’t need rate cuts to get risk assets to go higher – April 10, 2024. The CNBC video below from one month ago, after the hotter CPI prints to start the year…